Category: COVID through 2022

All my various postings tracking the COVID-19 pandemic through the end of 2022.

Post #881: Social norms and the school of hard knocks. These are the only things enforcing mask use.

Source for all images in this post:  clipart-library.com

Today’s post is motivated by my recent refresher course on what, exactly, the COVID-19 mask laws say in the Commonwealth of Virginia (Post #877).

This post is about how that law is (not) enforced.  And about what, if anything, actually enforces mask use.  Both here in Virginia, and in the nation as a whole. Continue reading Post #881: Social norms and the school of hard knocks. These are the only things enforcing mask use.

Post #879: Preparing for a hard winter, 7: It’s not the heat, it’s the (lack of) humidity.

Source:  Underlying data are from Johns Hopkins University, via the NY Times Github COVID-19 data repository.  I have once again had to expand the vertical scale of this graph since the last time I published it.  Three days ago.

This post has turned into quite a treatise.  Let me cut to the chase.  Here’s my hypothesis, regarding the last two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US.

It’s not the heat, it’s the (lack of) humidity.

  • Hot weather + no indoor mask use = second wave of US pandemic, centering on southern states.
  • Cold weather + no indoor mask use = third wave of US pandemic, centering on northern states.

In short, I think that dry indoor air plus no mask use is going to be a toxic combination this winter.  And I’m afraid we’re seeing an acid test of that where the cold, arid winter climate of the US high plains and eastern slope Rockies intersects Republican anti-mask sentiment. Continue reading Post #879: Preparing for a hard winter, 7: It’s not the heat, it’s the (lack of) humidity.

Post #878: College safer than home, for COVID-19?

Source:  William and Mary COVID-19 dashboard ,downloaded 10/24/2020.

Is my daughter safer from COVID-19 while at college, than she would be at home?  That’s the point of today’s calculation.  And the answer is a qualified “yes”.

You’ll see a lot of statistics regarding the number of COVID-19 infections within some defined population.  A few weeks back, the news was that nearly 20,000 Amazon.com workers had contracted COVID-19.  Back in June, it was 11,500 grocery store workers that had been infected.   Separately, you will see ongoing statistics on the large fraction of health care and first responder personnel who have been infected.

These are nice bits of click-bait, and do their job of getting people mindlessly angry at somebody.  Throw a big number in your face, get you to respond with your emotions and not your brain, and they’ve done their job.

Nobody ever stops to ask:  How many infections would be “normal” for the population in question?  Does the stated count of infections represent excess risk, above and beyond what the average American faces? Or does it just match the existing “background” rate of infections in a comparable US population?

Take Amazon.com, for example.

Continue reading Post #878: College safer than home, for COVID-19?

Post #877: COVID trends to 10/23/2020, and some observations.

Source data are from Johns Hopkins University, as archived by the NY Times on Github.  Note that I’ve had to expand the vertical scale yet again, since the last time I published this graph.

There’s really not much to say about trends in Virginia (thick black line).  Things have held fairly steady here, with minor ups and downs, for the past few months.

But as you can see from the general shape of this tangle of lines, a lot of states have shown a modest upward trend since the first of October or so.  Plausibly, that commonality is a result of the seasonality of coronavirus in temperature climates.  (But there’s no proof of that.)

A few observations and recaps. Continue reading Post #877: COVID trends to 10/23/2020, and some observations.

Post #875: Preparing for a hard winter, 6: Restaurants

Source:  9news.com  This one is in Denver.  Google “outdoor dining igloo” to see numerous other examples.

 

 

I’ve addressed the issue of outdoor restaurant seating on several occasions, most recently in Post #830.   In that last post, I noted that Fairfax County was considering changing its regulations to allow fully-enclosed and heated tents to count as outdoor restaurant seating. Continue reading Post #875: Preparing for a hard winter, 6: Restaurants

Post #872: COVID-19 spit tests for sale at Safeway

 

Places near Vienna VA offering COVID-19 nasal swab PCR tests.   Some but not all offer free testing.  You can search for free test sites on the Virginia Department of Health website.  Source:  Virginia Department of Health

I got my flu shot over the weekend, despite the fact that it’s not terribly effective (Post #741).  That took place outdoors, in front of the Pan Am Safeway. If felt a bit third-world, to be getting medical care outdoors.  But it was clearly the smart thing for them to do, in terms of coronavirus safety.

While I was there, at the pharmacy counter, I noticed a little sign stating that they had coronavirus spit tests for sale.  They were vague on details, and talked about insurance coverage of the test.  But they definitely had them.  Continue reading Post #872: COVID-19 spit tests for sale at Safeway