Category: COVID through 2022

Sometimes it takes a while for things to sink in.  Yesterday (Post #579) I brought up the Kinsa health weather map.  This tracks trends in rates of fever across the US, as a byproduct of the anonymized data produced by their their internet-connected thermometer.  Like so:

Source:  Source:  Kinsa health weather map.  Blue = declining trend in abnormal amounts of fever, compared to what would be expected at this time.

Now, I’m pretty savvy when it comes to health care data.  So when I saw their map — saw the perfect blue shade of it all across the US — I knew it was too perfect.  I was able to figure out that this probably wasn’t showing anything to do with COVID-19.  In terms of number of cases, common flu is vastly more prevalent than COVID-19.  All this shows is that our social distancing measures have successfully interrupted the transmission of influenza in the US.

All.  (Face-palm).  I said that wrong.  Let me try again.

This shows that our social distancing measures have successfully interrupted the transmission of influenza in the US.

And, you know what?  If those extreme measures interrupted the transmission of flu, odds are good that they interrupted the transmission of  COVID-19.  Which, per the CDC, pretty much spreads by the same mechanism that flu spreads, droplet transmission (with, IMHO, the chance of occasional aerosol transmission.)

Here’s today’s track for overall rates of fever in the US, as of about midnight 3/29/2020:

Source:  Source:  Kinsa health weather map.

As before, the blue band is the prevalence of fever that Kinsa expects to see, based on their projections of the flu season.  I read up on their methodology yesterday, and I’d say they’re pretty good at what they do.  In other words, that blue band isn’t some random guess, it was pretty tight estimate of where you’d expect us to be.

But that prediction is based on normal behavior.  That’s based on normal rates of flu spread, as we go about our usual school, work, and social activities.

Our behavior is now so unusual, we’ve actually driven the prevalence of fever well below the expected level.  To me, the only sensible explanation of that, given the relevant prevalence of disease, is that we’ve accidentally interrupted the spread of flu in the US.  But I’d say that makes it a good bet that we’ve also done what we set out to do, which was to interrupt the spread of COVID-19.

So I can’t yet guarantee you that social distancing is working on the virus it is targeting.  Nobody can.  But, at this point, I can confidently say that social distancing appears to be doing something to some virus.  Probably, due to the vastly larger number of cases, what we’re literally looking at its the impact on flu virus transmission.  But I’d bet good money, based on the similar means of transmission, that this is a crude proxy for interruption of spread of COVID-19.  I’d go so far to say it it strains credibility to think that we could interrupt spread of one and not the other, given the similar means by which they are most commonly transmitted, per the CDC (droplet transmission).

(Other explanations just don’t pan out due to small numbers — e.g., this isn’t the impact of COVID-19 cases being hospitalized and so not using their thermometers, this isn’t the impact of new thermometer sales to the worried-well, and so on.   Case counts are just too small relative to flu, I think. The Kinsa data is a flu-tracking system, and that’s almost certainly what it’s doing now.  The uptick in fevers due to COVID-19 was visible as long as it was seen against a normal background of a much larger number of flu fevers.  But once we interrupted the spread of flu, the loss of those flu fevers swamps everything else.)

COVID-19 has a long “pipeline”, so we aren’t seeing the inflection point in new cases yet.  We’re still observing cases that entered the pipeline two-plus weeks ago (infection) that are now coming out the other end (tested positive).  But this shifts my subjective odds that we’re going to see that inflection point soon.

I should also note in passing that I don’t think this has ever been observed before in the US.  This, being, the interruption of a flu season.  Ever.  That’s how crazily unusual this impact is.  You want crazy crazy?  This makes me wonder whether we might actually see an overall decline in the US mortality rate this year, assuming social distancing is successful.  Not a lot of (e.g.) car accidents happening at present.  In addition to flu deaths.

I have a couple of more things to say, but I’m just going to stop there.  This realization literally brought me awake at 3 AM.  The rest can wait for later today.  On that note, I leave you with a clip from one of my all-time favorite movies, The Emperor’s New Groove.

Orange bar is Fairfax County.  My heart wants to sketch in the other side of the hill, past the end of the graph.  My brain knows it’s far too soon to tell.

The Fairfax case count stands at 156, based on the Johns Hopkins database as of 6:30 this evening.

Source:  Kinsa health weather map.  Blue = declining trend in abnormal amounts of fever, compared to what would be expected at this time.

Source:  Kinsa health weather map.

Kinsa makes an internet-connected thermometer, and they use the resulting data for, among other things, monitoring trends in flu.  Lately, it seems to have value in monitoring trends in coronavirus.

Above, the dashed blue line is the amount of fever they expect to see at this time of year.  Band around that is (probably) the 95% confidence interval (what you could reasonably expect to occur, purely by chance).  Orange/red line is the actual observed level of fever.  Red is “atypical”, meaning above that 95% confidence interval band.  The little peak of the red portion is literally the day after Fairfax County shut the schools.  So, FWIW, their count of atypical fevers has been declining pretty much ever since Fairfax County closed the schools.

Caveat:  You can never be sure whether that’s a true result related to coronavirus, or just an artifact of odd changes in people’s behavior in these odd times.  That solid-blue map just looks too good to me, and I wonder whether (e.g.) the lack of kids catching the flu, with schools closed, is swamping any signal they might be getting from a change in coronavirus cases.  At this point, I don’t see anyone pointing to this and jumping up and down, other than a single business publication (see below).  And Kinsa itself is not saying that this heralds a decline in future coronavirus cases.

It is what it is:  it’s a general, non-disease-specific measure of the level of fever in the US population.  Plausibly, social distancing may have perturbed the calibration of their system.  (In effect, suppressing the normal levels of normal flu).  But at the minimum, it shows that any continued growth in coronavirus is too small to be seen against that background.

In terms of real-time data, it looks like that’s the only source.  It’s the only source I’ve found so far.  And for what it’s worth, it’s showing declines in unusual amounts of fever all across the US.  On the way up, this thing did seem to be flagging hotspots of coronavirus activity.  You have to cross your fingers and hope that it’s flagging the reduction of those hotspots, on the way down.  But you have to be aware of the possibility that the vast change in population behavior with our “social distancing” orders might produce a false signal.

The maps above were updated as of about midnight yesterday (midnight of 3/27/2020), per the Kinsa website. Continue reading Post #579: No inflection point for Virginia today, but maybe the Kinsa data show us where we’re headed.

Source:  Amazon.com

I was an economist, by trade, and I’ve been thinking about the economic situation.  Most of which I am keeping to myself, because, well, there’s a reason economics is called “the dismal science”.  I figure there’s more than enough professionally-produced doom-and-gloom right now that amateurs need not apply.

But what about Vienna?  And in particular, what about Vienna retail establishments?  Obviously, one thing you can do for local business is keep buying as you normally would, if and as you are willing and able.  But what else can you do?

That’s made me think about ways I could, spend more now.  Get that money into the hands of local businesses now, at (what we hope is) the worst of the economic shutdown.

One obvious strategy is to pre-purchase shelf-stable consumables.  That differs from hoarding because, if you do that, you will of course purposefully stay away from anything in short supply, expected to be in short supply, or that could be a considered a staple of modern existence.

As long as it’s stuff you would eventually consume anyway, that doesn’t even cost you anything.  It’s, in some sense, simply an exchange of assets.

So, today I made the decision to invest in some stock.  In fact, I invested to the extent legally permissible in the Commonwealth of Virginia. 

Source:  Vienna Arts Society and Norm’s.

Norm’s Beer and Wine stock, to be precise.  Didn’t even have to go into the store.  Transacted it over the phone, they pulled a nice selection, I paid, they delivered and stacked it neatly on the bench on my porch.  No human contact.*

* This does not excuse you from tipping the delivery guy.  Now more than ever.  Taping an envelope to your front door works just fine.

That’s arguably more beer than I have bought from Norm’s since it opened.  But so what.  It’ll keep.  At this point, I’d bet my IPA will hold its value better than my IRA.

I will note, for the record, that the beer sections at both grocery stores I’ve been shopping at remain fully stocked.  Maybe beer drinkers are an exceptionally mellow people.   Maybe people have better things to think about.  But regardless of the reason, no shortage.

This is not an ad for Norm’s.  This is a request that those of you with money in your pockets (for now) think about pre-purchasing shelf-stable commodities offered by local business.  If you’re a wine fancier, judging from how Norm’s took this, I’d guess that Vienna Vintner might not mind selling you a case or two.  And so forth.

Again, not trying to advertise, just using these as examples.

I realize that a lot of people are worried about just paying the bills for the next few months.  That’s not really who this is aimed at.  I’m retired, so I’m not going to be laid off.  I suspect there are a lot of folks like me here in Vienna.  Let me suggest that now’s the time to open your wallets, if and as you are able.

---

More generally

More generally, I’ve been thinking about consumer-led strategies to stabilize small retail business in Vienna. It’s not rocket science.  If you can: Buy what you would normally buy.  Buy-and-store-it, if you have the cash and the space, to make up for people not buying.  Buy gift cards, where offered, under the hope that both you and that store will still be here when this is all over.  And it’s hard to figure out much more than you, the consumer, can do.

To get the big picture, it might help you think about it to refer to my (almost-exactly-one-year-old) quick-and-dirty survey of Maple Avenue retail.  It’s a year out-of-date, but I’d bet that the mix of businesses (Post #208) is about the same now as it was then.  FWIW, here’s a link to lists and categories I drew up at that time, in an Excel workbook downloadable from this next link:  Retail inventory updated 3-19-2019  I’ll put an exhaustive summary table at the end of this.  (Note:  This is Maple only, and does not include Church, Mill, Dominion, Cedar Park, or any other commercial areas in Vienna.)

Maple has a large component of service providers.  By and large, I think service  providers and their employees are going to take a fairly horrific beating from this, no matter what.  They get paid by the hour.  To some very large degree, they aren’t going to be able to get those idle hours back.  They’re gone.

Gift certificate purchases, where available, might be able to ease their cash-flow problems.  But lost billable hours are likely lost forever.  It’s not like you would want to (e.g.) get extra haircuts once it’s legal for barbers to be open again.  (See this page to see what must be closed, what may remain open, in Virginia.)

The sole exception that comes to mind is providers of routine health care, where such services can be rescheduled if the shutdown lasts only a moderately long time.  For example, my dentist is currently shut down for two weeks, based on recommendations from the Virginia Dental Association.  (I am uncertain as to whether or not they will be allowed to remain open, in Virginia, as health care providers.)  For a business like that, where almost all of it is routine scheduled care, plausibly, he’ll be made whole by working additional hours worked when missed appointments are rescheduled.  That’s if the shutdown lasts a short period of time.

As I read down the list of the types of service providers we have on Maple, many of them have been categorically closed in the Commonwealth (see this page).  In the main, any service where people have to stand closer than 6′ apart (e.g., spa, hair salon, etc.) is closed by law.  Or any where large numbers of people congregate.  For most, I’m guessing those lost earning hours will never be recovered.  Any of those that are locally-owned will likely go bankrupt under a lengthy shutdown, absent some sort of direct financial aid or some very deep pockets for the owners.  For those, I think there’s literally nothing the consumer can do.

The Commonwealth has converted the entire restaurant and beverage industry to take-out only.  So there, the solution is also clear.  The only thing you can do to support those is … order take-out.  Pick the restaurants that you’d miss the most if they closed, and if you still have free cash in your pocket, spend it.  (But use a credit card.  I think that’s more sanitary these days).

And that just leaves the goods retailers.  Big grocery stores are doing fine, I’d guess.  I haven’t set foot in a convenience store since this started.  So you read down the list, and if there’s something there that you wouldn’t mind owning some of, now-ish would be a good time to buy, if you have the ready money.

Hence, my stock purchase.  I got as far down the goods section as “Wine and Beer” and said, sure, I can stock up on that.  I asked the guy at Norm’s whether it was an inconvenience to get a “legal limit” order (limit:  four cases of beer per day).  His reply was, not at all.  Orders large or small, they’re glad to have the business.  I suspect that a lot of Maple Avenue vendors currently share that opinion.

 

Category	Count
01: Grocery:  General	3
02: Drug store	3
03: Gasoline	5
04: Convenience store	5
05: Wine and beer	3
06: Grocery:  Specialty	6
07: Jewelry and precious metals	4
08: Mobile phone	4
09: Mattress store	3
10: Home furnishings, art excl mattress	3
11: Pet, animal supplies	3
12: Clothing, shoes	5
13: Tobacco and vape	3
99:  All other	28
Subtotal, Goods	78
1: Coffee shop	7
2: Dessert shop	10
3:  Fast Food	4
4: Pizza	6
5: Sub or sandwich shop	3
6: Fast casual	10
7:  All other	36
Subtotal, restaurant	76
01: Medical and Dental	48
02: Hair, barber, skin, nails, etc.	25
03: Spa and massage	12
04: Exercise, yoga	3
05: Education, lessons, test prep	7
11: Car service, wash	6
12: Dry cleaner	9
13: Home remodeling and repair	10
14: Pets and animals	5
21: Bank	14
22: Insurance	4
23: Real estate	8
24: Tax, acing, financial	6
31: Shipping	3
99: Other	21
Subtotal, services	181

I just checked the mid-day numbers from the Hopkins coronavirus map, and even with incomplete data, that’s enough to say that Virginia has not yet hit an inflection point in case counts.  As of this update there are 124 cases in Fairfax county.  That’s up from 80 yesterday.  (That may exclude a few cases in the independent cities of Fairfax and Falls Church.)

As of 6:30 PM EDT, the Fairfax case count remains at 124.  Commonwealth count was up by about 10.  When you get right down to it, those numbers are not likely to be real.  It may have reached the point where the daily reporting is starting to lag. I’ll try to refresh this later this PM, but where the counts come in on a flow basis, if the flow is irregular, there’s not a lot you can do to present an accurate time-series.  I will note that, just a couple of days ago, I had to roll back my update from 5pm to 6pm.  I suspect that process is continuing.

Edit:  Don’t you just hate it when reality spoils attempted humor?  Turns out, my neighbors down the street went to Safeway later in the AM, and … bananas were in stock.  Apparently, I’m just going too early to hit the store when it’s optimally stocked.  I shall adjust my routine accordingly. 

I went to the Pan Am Safeway around 7AM today (3/27/2020).

I have never seen so many people, working so hard, to stock the shelves.  At a guess, there were more employees in the store than there were customers.  And they were all in constant motion.

 I’ve never seen so many aisles packed with boxes of stuff, waiting to be put on the shelves.

So, as far as I can tell, there are only two things wrong with the food supply chain in the USA.  One is the customers, and the other is restaurants.  Customer behavior, I have yet to see any proposed solution to that.  I have already discussed this in Post #563.  Haters gonna hate, hoarders gonna hoard.  But a second, true problem with the supply chain is that so many people were getting such a large share of their calories via restaurants (and fast food and take-out), that suppliers are struggling to divert food from that stream (where it, e.g., comes in inappropriate sizes and packaging) to the grocery-store stream.

A few items were out of stock, and others were thin.   But, e.g. they had some eggs.  Not a lot, but some.  That’s better than my last trip.  Milk was skimpy-to-nonexistent.   Beans and rice were still depleted.  Which struck me as oddly pedestrian, for this area.  I momentarily found myself grousing because they didn’t have the cut of chicken I was after, which clearly marks me as the pampered suburbanite that I am.  I saw no shortages on any other cuts of meat.

But, yes, we have no bananas. And no toilet paper.  I’ve been trying to think of a euphemism for that that would scan, in that old song, but most of the ones I’ve come up with so far are not family-friendly one.  All the non-obscene ones are pretty lame.  (Yes, we have no butt-wipers, we have no butt-wipers today).  (Also, that song really didn’t age well.  You have to wonder how it became such an American classic.)

I also went to Fresh Market, stalking the elusive banana.  They had, I think, three, in very bad shape.  I wasn’t quite desperate enough to buy them.  But, to the point, they were almost perfectly stocked.  Except for bananas and TP.  If you are short of staples, give them a try, e.g., plenty of rice, beans, etc.

Of note, there was a guy in what I’m pretty sure was a Fairfax Fire and Rescue jacket walking into Safeway as I was walking out.  He was wearing an N95 mask (clearly identifiable via the valve in the center).  My guess? They are the essential personnel.  I bet they’ve been told to mask up if they are going into public places.  Alternatively, maybe they just have a better grasp of how serious this is.  Either way, I think we should all take a clue from that. 

I was wearing a mask.  Man, that’s a pain in the butt when you wear glasses.  But from now on, that’s what I’m doing.  I also:  washed hands before, upon return, and after putting groceries away.  Used a touch-screen stylus (worked perfectly).  Kept my distance, kept my voice down, didn’t talk unless necessary.  Used pieces of paper towel to hold the cart handle, and to open the dairy case.

Mainly, I’m masking up because something about the spread of this does not quite add up, to me (Post #573).*  And, because, empirically, as far as I can tell, the only first-world countries that have successfully suppressed this, so far, appear to Asian countries.  And there, as I understand it, social norms enforce public mask use during epidemics.  There, it’s considered polite to mask up in public.  I think we should learn from that. 

* Although, upon reflection, a substantially longer lag time in testing and reporting in the US, compared to China, would also explain the lack of an inflection point so far. My calculation was based on a median of four days from symptom onset to reporting of test results, in China, from the previously-discussed WHO report.  Plausibly, that might have reflected a test-all-suspects policy.  Here, because, for whatever reason, we have not adopted that policy, we’re probably a) starting testing at a later stage of disease, and b) rumors are that, in some cases, it’s taking forever to get the results back.

Couldn’t hurt.  Might help.  I realize that only fools disagree with the US CDC.  But I still say, wear ’em if you’ve go ’em.

This is based on the 6PM EDT update of the Johns Hopkins coronavirus map and database.  Still too soon to tell if we’ve hit the inflection point.  Separately, the case count for Fairfax County (including Falls Church and Fairfax City) stood at 80, in that same update.  That’s just under twice the number of cases that had been reported as of two days ago.

 

I have been told that Verizon is starting a weekly concert series, with a twist.  They will both ask you to support local small businesses, and then will open up an application process and lottery for $10K grants to local small businesses.

I’m not quite sure of the details.  And it’s not a huge amount of money.  But it’s a nice gesture.

I can give you the links to Verizon’s information, and then quote the key parts.

https://www.verizon.com/about/news/biggest-names-helping

... The weekly series will debut on Thursday, March 26, at 8:00 p.m. ET with a performance from Dave Matthews.

... The concerts will stream live at 8:00 p.m. ET on Twitter @verizon, on Yahoo Entertainment and on Fios Channel 501.

“... Verizon will donate $2.5 million to Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC), a national nonprofit that has invested $20 billion to fuel economic opportunity for people and communities across America. Over the course of the series, all viewers who tune in will be encouraged to tag their favorite local businesses and make a purchase in advance for when the crisis is over and the businesses reopen. As consumers engage, Verizon will unlock an additional $2.5 million in funds, bringing the total donation to a potential $5 million. 

LISC will use the funds to provide grants of up to $10,000 to businesses facing immediate financial pressure because of COVID-19, especially entrepreneurs of color, women-owned businesses and other enterprises that don’t have access to flexible, affordable capital in historically underserved communities. LISC will launch an online process for small businesses to submit applications for grants. Applications will be reviewed and then entered into a lottery. 

...

It’s a start.  And the idea of buying (e.g.) gift cards now, for later redemption, makes sense.

I’m going to wear a mask, from now on, on the rare occasions that I shop.  Despite CDC advice.  I’m also going to stop talking when shopping.  This post outlines why.  A subsequent post will give details.

I have never said this on any prior post, but if you know somebody in a position of influence who you think might benefit from seeing this, please pass this post on.

Continue reading Post #573: Please shut up in public, Part I