Post #418: Further followups to the 10/9/2019 Town Council work session

Post #413 is the overview of what went on.  Post #415 is my rant about how not to do a survey.   Both of those were pretty well-documented.

This post, by contrast, is just a set of opinions.  These are mostly observations that I made, or that others who attended that meeting made, and passed along to me.

1:  These meetings are needlessly disorganized.

And the corollary is, somebody needs to step up and keep this process organized.  Hint:  It’s not going to be done by Town staff.

Town Council meetings, in general, strike me as lacking in organization.  It may or may not be obvious when you attend or watch a meeting.  But when you (effectively) transcribe the meetings, as I do when I generate an “index” to match my audio files, it really stands out.  For any significant issue, the discussion just wanders.  Any one issue will be discussed half-a-dozen different times in a meeting — typically with no clear summary or wrap-up or conclusion.  Time isn’t budgeted in any meaningful way, and a disproportionate share of time is spent on the minutia of an item.

I’ve said that before, most recently in a writeup on time management (Post #388). And I acknowledge that this must be a long-standing problem, given that Town Council was struggling with long meeting times back in 1969.

Source:  Town of Vienna newsletter, February 1969, available from this archive of old town newsletters on this Town of Vienna webpage.  

Weirdly, one thing that other local governments routinely do to streamline their meetings appears to be infeasible for Vienna.  That’s Councilman Majdi’s suggestion to use a consent agenda (Post #404) to get minor, non-controversial items out of the way.  I literally couldn’t find a local government that doesn’t use that approach (other than Vienna).  Based on that, I would guess that something as radical as putting estimated times for agenda item would be beyond the pale.  (Fairfax County does that, but none of the smaller local jurisdictions (Herndon, Falls Church, Fairfax City) does.)

But this last work session really brought the lack of organization to the forefront.  Months back, when the Town Council et al.  first started discussions of re-doing MAC, I despaired of the Town ever being able to get through it (Post #325).  With every additional meeting, I continue to despair.  These meetings just end up all over the place.

Here’s my summary of the structure of the 10/9/2019 Town Council work session on revising commercial zoning (including MAC) in Vienna.

  1.  It started down in the weeds.  Town staff provided about 100 pages of “redline” documents.  That is, a marked-up (edited) copy of the Town’s entire commercial zoning ordinance, plus supporting materials.  Apparently, each Town Council member was supposed to provide comments on that 100 pages, and at least one of them (Councilman Potter) did exactly that.
  2. Town staff surprised Town Council with brand-new and highly controversial material.  Then Town staff started to provide an overview of key aspects of MAC, but this included issues that Town Council had never even seen before, such as raising the height limit to 67′ (plus parapets), and two (or three?) plans for reducing the applicable MAC zone to a subset of Maple.
  3. A bit of a free-for-all ensued.  So the presentation and discussion more or less broke down into an unplanned discussion of individual items.  On which there was, may I mildly say, a lack of consensus among Town Council.
  4. It eventually became apparent to some members that they needed to hash out the big-picture items first before they edited the 100 page document.  Only at the end of the meeting did they decide that they needed to discuss the big picture first, and then get down into the weeds.  The last 15 or so minutes of the meeting consisted of Town Council deciding that each individual would write out their “big ticket” items, and that Town staff would compile that list.
  5. And they realized they needed to get feedback from the public, on these big issues, before proceeding to rewrite the law.   Credit for Councilman Noble for insisting that the Town do a proper, random-sample survey, to see what citizens think about these changes to the zoning rules.  (Town staff had planned to do another non-random internet survey, and it’s far from clear to me that Town staff are the right people to do a proper survey (Post #415).

The upshot is that they just sort of stumbled through it.  And only at the end of the day did they realize they had not one, but two major steps to take before they got down into the details of editing the 100 pages of Town statute.  But I will say that they at least, at the end, came away with two action items:  Create a list of things to discussion, and do a proper (random-sample) survey of Vienna residents about those items.

I mean, by the end of it, I think they got the process right.  They really do have to reach agreement on (e.g.) how big the buildings will be, and so on, before they can get into the details of rewriting the statute.  And they probably ought to get some clean feedback from Vienna citizens.  And (not mentioned above), the idea of getting some handle on the economics of redevelopment was a good one.

By the end, it was evident to many observers — not just me — that nobody was running the show.  I’ve now had two people, at two different times, give me their own versions of this same observation.  The meeting was not quite a random walk.  It did eventually get to some sort of conclusion.  But my gosh, if this is the pace of progress, it’s going to be years, if ever, before this gets done.

This meeting was the easy part.  They didn’t have to try to reach consensus about anything other than what the next steps should be.  When they start in on the actual details of the law, I can’t imagine how this laissez-faire approach can possibly work.

Maybe the Town needs to have a paid, disinterested consultant come in and run this process for them.  Literally hire someone to run these work sessions.  Not an expert in zoning, but an expert in running meetings with an eye toward reaching consensus on controversial topics.  These meetings aren’t going to run themselves.  But right now, that seems to be the plan.

Finally, I can tell you what I don’t want to see.  I don’t want to see this go “underground”, and have the details worked out with another steering committee, ad-hoc committee, or other small, selected group of individuals.  I just perceive too much potential for mischief.  As I now understand it, the original MAC was presented to Town Council for a yes/no vote.  Town Council, as a whole, did not have the option to modify the law as it was presented to them.  However difficult it may be for Town Council to proceed in the current fashion, I don’t think they want to go back to the methods used for the original MAC development.

2:  Additionality and compactness:  Town Council still doesn’t “get it” regarding open/gathering/green space.

There are two basic, simple, and purely technical points that Town Council keeps walking around, rather than addressing.

The first is “additionality”. 

The existing open-space requirement and the proposed “gathering space” requirement double-count spaces that already have to be kept open, by law.  And, as a result, you can end up with no additional open space, beyond that which was already required.

For example, as currently written, MAC buildings must be set back at least 20′ from the Maple Avenue curb.  All of that setback that is not literally in the Town’s right-of-way counts in the open/gathering space calculation.  Even though the builder has absolutely no choice but to provide that 20′, by statute.  In addition, any sort of walkway that is needed merely to service the building, counts as open space.  But the builders would have to provide a way for people to get in and out of the building, in any case.

This is what led me to point out how ineffective the existing “open space” requirement was.  In the case of 444 Maple West, it did virtually nothing.  The “open space” requirement didn’t result in any additional open space — it merely counted a bunch of spaces that would have had to be open, either by law, or simply to allow the building to be used.  Like this, from the post cited just above, on the then-current version of 444 Maple West.

Currently, our wily Department of Planning and Zoning has taken to evaluating existing MAC buildings and proposals against a new version of this, deemed “gathering space”.  These new evaluations seem to show that this new “gathering space” rule would be effective.  But that’s a trick, and nobody who has worked with legislation should be fooled by it.  You are looking at buildings that had been built to satisfy the existing (“open space”) law.  If the alternative (“gathering space”) law had been in effect, those buildings would have been built to satisfy the new law.  Evaluating buildings structured to satisfy one law, by looking at them through the lens of a different law, shows nothing.  My point is that these comparisons explicitly do not show that the “gathering space” rule would create additional open space.  All they show is that building structured to satisfy one open-space rule would have had to have been restructured if they were to satisfy a different open-space rule.

Upshot #1:  If you want a rule that creates additional open space, beyond that already required by law, then you need to write a rule that explicitly calls for additional open space.  You have to eliminate the double-counting.

The second technical point is what Town Council keeps mis-labeling as “contiguous”.

Contiguous just means that all the parts of the area touch one another.  So, for example, the existing sidewalk around the Tequila Grande site is contiguous.  The sidewalk and mowing strip together are quite narrow at this intersection (only about 8′ wide), but those account for about 5500 square feet of contiguous open space.

“CONTIGUOUS”

You couldn’t hold a meeting on that sidewalk — it’s worthless as a gathering space.  But it’s 5500 square feet of contiguous open space.

I think what the Town would actually like to see is what I term “compact” space.  (But I made that up.  There is no simple English word for “not stretched thin”.)  I think that’s what the Town was after, in the “parks and plazas” phrase in the MAC statement of purpose and intent.  Here’s the same 5500 square feet, but as “compact” space, in the sense of not stretched thin.

“COMPACT”

That space is about 75′ on a side (to within my drawing error).  It is exactly as if you took all of that sidewalk/utility strip space, folded it up, and made something useful out of it.  At that point, you do have some sort of “gathering space”.  (Although, as I continue to state, it would not be very pleasant due to the noise.)

Upshot #2:  If you want something like the picture above, to be “parks and plazas”, you’re going to have to write it into the law.  Something like, x% of the open space will consist of a single area where the longest dimension is no more than N times the shortest dimension.  You’re going to have to rule out “open space” that consists of nothing but (contiguous) long, skinny space, like a sidewalk.

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3:  Someone needs to draw the map that was outlined, live, during the meeting.

At this meeting, Town staff put up several options for restricting additional MAC buildings to the core of the Town.  They presented two maps, but the Town Council asked them to sketch out a third map, on the fly.  That third map was all the existing MAC lots that do not adjoin residential property.   As it turns out, that looked to be just two blocks or so, of the oldest section of the Vienna downtown.

Please don’t let that third map be forgotten.  If necessary, I can re-play that portion of the meeting, and sketch it in.  But I think that the idea of a central business district is fairly classic, and I would hate to lose sight of the idea that some small part of the Vienna downtown could be rebuilt without directly abutting the surrounding neighborhoods.

I could keep going, but I’ve probably hit the TLDR point for most readers.  Let me stop with just these three points.

Post #416: Vienna’s too bougie for a bus.

This was my college-age daughter’s summary judgement about the potential for public transit in Vienna.

I had to look it up.

Bougie (also spelled bourgie), pronounced BOO-zhee, is a slang shortening of “bourgeoisie”.  The Urban Dictionary offers several definitions.  I’ll stick with “upper middle class” for this posting, although it typically has a more negative connotation when used.

Unprompted, she went on to say “They’d ride a trolley, but they’d never ride a bus.”  Which left me scratching my head a bit, as, mechanically, a trolley is literally the same vehicle as a bus.  It’s just a cute, somewhat dysfunctional bus.

My daughter grew up in modern Vienna, so she has a more intuitive grasp of the culture of Vienna than I do.   But I was a little taken aback because  she didn’t even have to think about it.  I described a couple of my recent posts (i.e., microtransit).

And the response was: Eye roll, followed by two short declarative sentences.

So, just to finish up:

First, maybe the cultural barriers are so strong that no local bus system will be viable in Vienna.  Duly noted, the existing Fairfax Connector buses are a delight (Post #225), but largely empty.

I’ve been thinking about this as an economist.  But maybe we need an anthropologist.  One can plausibly dismiss low Vienna  ridership of the Connector buses to lack of convenience.  (What economists would term the “time cost” of use.)  But would more convenient public transport would lead to greater ridership?  Not if the true barrier is cultural.  If Vienna is too bougie for a bus, you can make public transit as convenient as you want, make it free, heck, make it pay you to ride it (Post #414).  And it will still fail.

Second, this dovetails with what I’ve called the Mcleanification of Vienna (Post #308).  When I moved here in 1993, much of southwest Vienna was “workers’ housing”, for want of a better term.  My immediate neighbors were, by profession:  Nurse, retired military, tile setter, school teacher, insurance salesman.   But with the tear-down boom, the price of admission to Vienna has gone up.  People with those professions may still live here, but it’s a fair bet that they would not be able to move here, given that the median new-house sales price looks to be somewhere around $1.5M.  For sure, I would not have been able to move here, given the (inflation-adjusted level of) my salary at the time.

As with any stereotype, I don’t mean that this applies across-the-board.  I don’t mean to say that every new home buyer in Vienna is “bougie”.  But I would say that it’s a fair bet that with the current high price of admission, Vienna is probably shifting in a “bougie-er” direction.

That certainly seemed apparent in the last election.  Typically — though not universally — the bigger the new house, the less likely you were to get traction on the MAC issue.

Third, and looking inward, maybe I don’t quite get the drive for Maple Avenue redevelopment because I’m insufficiently bougie.  I grew up in a culture where (e.g.) people were prideful about how many miles they had on their car, not how new it was.  And maybe I find the Vienna downtown to be OK as-is because of that.  But that puts me out-of-step with some portion of Vienna, and as the Mcleanification continues, that probably puts me out-of-step with an increasingly large portion of Vienna.

Finally, if that analysis is correct, then we should neither build a downtown that displeases the current majority, nor lock in a downtown that will displease a future, bougie-er majority.  Which argues for one of two types of strategy, if, in fact, the Town is becoming increasing bougie under the relentless pressure of high new home prices.

One, it argues for proceeding slowly, so that more of the open (that is, under-developed) space on Maple is preserved for the next generation to deal with.  You don’t want to set off a land rush, and lock in the preferences of the current generation of residents, if there is a reasonable expectation that this will not be viewed as optimal by future generations.  You don’t want your successors, in Vienna, to look at MAC buildings, shake their heads, and say “what were they thinking”.

Second, it argues for something we have never seen here in Vienna (or possibly elsewhere), an explicit phase-in of redevelopment strategy.  It sounds kind of fringe, but maybe the right thing to say is, for the first generation of MAC, the limit is three floors.  For the second generation, the limit is four.  And for the third generation, the limit is negotiable.  Where, just to pull something out of a hat, each generation might last a biblical seven years.  Or, alternatively, where each successive Town Council would have to vote in the next phase of MAC, based on their perception of average voter sentiment.   At some not-to-exceed pace.  That is, create a phased-in set of increasing opportunities for redevelopment.

You wouldn’t do something like that without a lot of forethought, because a strategy like that could easily prove to be destructive.  It could (e.g.) retard redevelopment as land owners held out for the more lucrative future development rights.  (Which may be happening now, with MAC, for all we know.)  But based on the wake-up call that I got from my daughter yesterday,  maybe this is the best way to reconcile the preferences of the existing and projected future Vienna populations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Post #415: Survey

The Town would like to survey Vienna residents to get their opinion about key aspects of Maple Avenue development.   See the relevant section of Post #413 for the writeup of that.  I applaud the fact that the Town is going to do such a survey.

But the Town is just asking for trouble in how they have chosen to go about that.  It’s a real drag to have to say that.  But what I’m going to say here needs to be said, by somebody.  Even though people are not going to like it, and I will be accused of being a mean person for saying it.

Well, tough.

Continue reading Post #415: Survey

Post #414: Vienna Retail-Oriented Omnibus Microtransit

At the last Town Council meeting, Councilman Majdi asked Town staff to look for grant money to fund startup of a microtransit system in Vienna.

In Post #407, I did my best to explain what microtransit is.  But my discussion missed an important piece of the puzzle.  As Councilman Majdi sees it, Vienna microtransit would be closely tied to Vienna-based businesses.  It’s as much a way to feed customers to Vienna businesses as it is a way to get cars off the road.

That’s a sufficiently different idea that I thought I might update my prior posting.  Here goes.

Continue reading Post #414: Vienna Retail-Oriented Omnibus Microtransit

Post #413: The 10/9/2019 Town Council work session on rewriting MAC

Vienna Town Council spent about three hours discussing changes to MAC zoning last night.

Only a handful of people were in the audience, which is a pity, because this meeting was well worth attending.  It was quite a meeting.  And I mean that mostly in a good way.  Lots of things were discussed.   I learned a lot (even after I have been following this for more than a year.)

I’m going to give a review of the issues that came up, and then do a series of posts on individual issues separately.  But I’m not going to do a blow-by-blow analysis of the entire three hour meeting.  It’s just too long.  Instead, I summarize the major issues below.  In many cases, the same issue was discussed several times over the course of the meeting, so this is my attempt to gather the bits and pieces of discussion in one place.

This meeting is one that may be worth downloading and listening to.  You may download my audio recording (.mp3) from this Google Drive link.  (The file is fairly large, but you can listen to it on Google Drive without downloading).  Or you can wait a day or two, and the Town will post a much-higher-quality audio recording in the archives section, at the bottom of this web pageContinue reading Post #413: The 10/9/2019 Town Council work session on rewriting MAC

Post #404: Consent agenda

I discussed the “consent agenda” concept in Post #388.  Instead of passing minor routine non-controversial business items individually, efficient governments package them into a single item (the “consent agenda”).  Passing that one item is deemed to have passed each of those individual items of business.

Vienna does not currently use the consent agenda approach.  Councilman Majdi proposed using it as a much-needed time saver for Town Council meetings.

I’m going to do 15 minutes of Google search to determine which governments around here use a consent agenda.   Is it a rarity or is it the norm? 

Answer:  Everyone uses it.  Except the Town of Vienna.  I can’t find a single local government entity that doesn’t use it.  Except the Town of Vienna.  Why Vienna can’t/won’t adopt this approach, I have no clue.

At the most recent Town Council work session, there was a suggestion to start the meetings half an hour earlier, in response to the long meeting times.  They would consider that, but they won’t consider using a consent agenda?  Or adopting any other time efficiency measures?  I’m sorry to have to say it, but the only word I can think to describe that is nuts.  It’s nuts to see that every other local government entity in this area uses this approach, as a time saver, but the Town of Vienna will not even consider it.

So I’m putting this one in the same category as the hundred-day rule.   It’s a goofy and dysfunctional practice that is unique to Town of Vienna government, and puts our government practices at odds with more-or-less every other government entity in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Here’s what I found, in alphabetical order, local government bodies that use the consent agenda method for passing minor routine business:

Alexandria City (reference, .pdf)

Alexandria City transportation board (reference)

Alexandria City School Board (reference, .pdf)

Alexandria City Planning Commission (reference, .pdf)

Arlington County (reference)

Falls Church (reference, .pdf)

Fairfax City (reference).

Fairfax County Board of Supervisors uses the term “administrative items”, but it serves the same function — a large number of routine business items passed with a single vote.  See, e.g., reference, .pdf).

Fairfax County School Board (reference)

Herndon, Town of  (reference, .pdf).

Prince William County (reference)

Leesburg, Town of (reference)

Loudoun County (reference)

Manassas City (reference, .pdf)

Manassas Park City (reference)

Stafford County (reference, .pdf)

I don’t mean this list to be exhaustive.  This is just what I found with 15 minutes of searching.

Post #403: When will the last small house in Vienna be torn down?

Approximately 2050, at the current tear-down rate.

Calculation follows.

  • Years of housing stock remaining =
  • Current housing stock
  • Times % amenable to tear-down
  • Times % not already torn down
  • Divided by new houses being built per year.
  • Years of housing stock remaining =
  • 4,626 (Source:  2019-2020 Town budget, page 24)
  • 80% (total guess)
  • 90% (total guess)
  • 100 (Source: 2019-2020 Town budget, page 277)

= 33 years.

2019 + 33 = 2050, rounded to the nearest ten.

Not sure that the calculation is worth much.  But to me, the interesting fact is the number of building permits in the typical year.  In any given year, the Town only issues about 100 permits for new detached homes.  (And since Vienna is nearly fully built-up, I interpret that as about 100 tear-downs per year).

So, while it seems like tear-downs are everywhere, and it seemed to me that the pace of the tear-down boom has been accelerating, the Town’s data on building permits says otherwise.  It’s about 100/year now, and it was about 100/year in (say) 2014.

It’s probably true that you can’t actually buy a small house in Vienna, to live in, because the lot is worth more as a tear-down than the structure is worth as a residence.  And it’s certainly true that the houses being offered for sale in Vienna appear heavily weighted toward new construction (see Post #308).

But in terms of small houses going extinct in Vienna, nope.  At the current rate, it does not appear that will happen any time soon.

 

Post #397: Our assets become our liabilities, round 3.

At the 9/24/2019 Transportation Safety Commission meeting, one citizen said that the Parkwood School is likely to close, following the death of its founder and long-time director.  That little private school is located at the corner of  Marshall Road and Ware Street.  For all appearances, other than for the extensive on-site parking, it looks like handful of 1950’s houses on a spacious lots.  In the picture below, the Vienna Aquatic Club pool is in the background, and most of the foreground is Parkwood School.

That citizen was hoping the Town might buy the land and make it a park, rather than let it be developed.   So that prompts the re-run of a point I made in this prior post and this prior postOur assets become our liabilities.

In Vienna and the rest of Northern Virginia, a significant piece of open space used to be an asset to a neighborhood.  It kept residential or commercial density down, it might have added a nice bit of greenery, and so on.  Always harmless, typically beneficial.

But now any significant bit of open space is a potential liability as well.  If redeveloped in the current economic climate, the result will be larger structures and higher density than the surrounding neighborhood.  A neighborhood without such open space is stable.  Change occurs one small lot at a time.  But a neighborhood with some large open space risks leap-frogging from its current state to … whatever is most profitably built these days.  And, in general, for a larger piece of land, that means some form of higher-density housing.

Per the Fairfax County tax maps, the school in its entirety sits on about 4.3 acres of land.  (All five lots circled above are owned by the same trust.)  To put that in perspective, the new six-house development across from Westwood County Club occupies 2.7 acres.  The Tequila Grand/444 Maple West development occupies about 2.75 acres.

If not rezoned to higher density, but merely subdivided under the current RS-16 zoning (minimum lot size of 16,000 square feet), the three current structures could be replaced with eleven new houses.  Given market conditions, there is little doubt that the houses would be as large as could be fit onto the lots.

I’d like to think that a developer would not try to get it rezoned to higher density, given the land area involved.  But these days, you just can’t tell.  The school is, after all, directly across from a large church, not other houses.  It backs to a swim club (Vienna Aquatic Club), not houses.  And it’s a very convenient commute to Metro from there.  If rezoned for townhouses, a quick reading of the zoning law suggests they could squeeze in maybe 30 or so under our current townhouse zoning of 8/acre, plus a bit of required open space.

Anyway, Vienna is totally unprepared to buy new park land.  At least as far as I can tell.  There’s no plan for parks and no contingency fund for purchasing such land.  (In fact, oddly enough, much of what we have as park land today used to be the locations of our local sewage treatment plants.  Those areas were converted to parks when sewage treatment became centralized in the 1960s.)  The idea of preserving this fairly significant piece of land as open space for future generations is appealing.  But it ain’t gonna happen.

 

Post #396: Courthouse traffic trend?

At last night’s Transportation Safety Commission (TSC) meeting, there was a lot of complaint about rising levels of traffic on Courthouse.  And I have to say, that matches my perception.  I see afternoon rush hour backups at the Maple/Nutley light that reach past Meadow Lane playground.  And … I just don’t recall seeing that a few years ago.

Long story short, VDOT data show no upward trend in traffic on Courthouse Road.  This probably comes as a surprise to the people who live on Courthouse.  It certainly goes against my perception of traffic on Courthouse.  But the numbers are what they are.

VDOT traffic counts are available on this page.  Please note that while they show a count for every year, for every monitored street, it looks like they only do an actual measurement (for Courthouse) every third year.  In-between, it looks like they just just gap-fill by trending the data forward.

Here’s the VDOT count of average weekday traffic, every third year from 2003 to 2018, in cars per day:

So I just thought I’d throw that out there.  I have a few ideas of what might be causing this, but it’s hard even to guess as to how to support or refute any proposed explanation.

Just to forestall one possible argument, the peak hour traffic is no more concentrated now than it was back in 2003.  Throughout this period, just under 10% of the daily traffic occurred during the peak hour of the day.

So what’s the explanation? One way to explain it is that everybody is wrong.  Traffic hasn’t picked up.  Traffic was actually worse in 2003, on Courthouse, than it is today.  Perception and memory can be flawed, so you can’t rule that out.

Otherwise, I’m stumped.  I just can’t quite picture a plausible scenario where an increasing number of cars is getting onto that street, but evading the VDOT traffic counter.

Perhaps traffic is more concentrated for very brief periods of time, leading to brief (but extreme) backups.  Those “micro-bursts” of traffic would then make an impression that we would tend to remember.

Could the recent (2016?) re-timing of the Maple Avenue lights have anything to do with this?  Could that have bunched traffic up more effectively on Courthouse?

 Here’s my best guess.  I noted earlier that we really have a large number of tear-downs going on in the Town of Vienna (Post #308).  Could the deep PM backups at the Courthouse/Nutley light be a “quitting time” phenomenon?  In effect, we now have a large local workforce of construction workers.  My vague recollection (from one summer working as a carpenter’s helper) was that, come 5 PM, that’s quitting time.  And everybody knocks off.  So I wonder if we have enough of a local construction labor force now that it is affecting the “peakiness” of traffic on Courthouse.  Not enough to materially raise the daily counts, say.  But just enough, added at around the same time, into the existing PM rush hour, that it materially boosts the length of the backup at the Nutley/Maple light.  And I then  perceive those long (but short-lived) lines of cars as “traffic sure has gotten a lot worse”.

No way to validate that one way or the other.  But for sure, the hard numbers in this case are strongly at odds with the common perception.