Category: Transportation

Anything related to transportation, including cars, traffic, other modes of transport, and so on.

Post #1512: Highest gasoline prices ever? Not really. Not even really close.

 

Source:  Calculated from Federal Reserve of St. Louis (FRED) data, series APU00007471A (gasoline) and CPIAUCSL (CPI), accessed 5/15/2022

In terms of the number of dollar bills you must surrender to purchase one gallon of gasoline, sure, gas is now at an all-time high within living memory.

But, as an economist, I have to point out that a dollar isn’t a dollar any more.  It used to be worth quite a bit more.  And because of that, it’s just plain stupid to look at long term price trends — or all time highs — in nominal dollars.

In real — that is, inflation-adjusted — terms, the current price of gas in the U.S. is nowhere near at an all-time high.  Within living memory.  That honor goes to June 2008, when the price of gas in the U.S. hit $5.46 per gallon, in today’s dollars. Continue reading Post #1512: Highest gasoline prices ever? Not really. Not even really close.

Post #1381: SNOVID-19.

I can’t help but smile when I hear the term “snow day”.  It’s a conditioned reflex, the result of having gone to school in the South.

But now there’s a new perspective on that old joy.  After a couple of years of complaining about hanging around the house and not doing much because of COVID, I now find that hanging around the house and not doing much because of snow is totally different.  It’s unironically fun.

Thus proving that mental attitude is all in your head.

It’s a snow day here in Fairfax County, VA

This is God’s way of shouting at us “Do Not Go Back to School”!  (That’s per a a friend of my wife’s, a schoolteacher who isn’t much looking forward to in-person classes with Omicron).

People from northern climates laugh at the degree of disruption a little snow causes in the South.  But, having seen it from both sides — grew up and live in Virginia, but spent several long, cold winters in Chicago — I can tell you that snow in the South is just a completely different beast from snow in the North.

It’s slipperier.  And that’s a fact.

Wintry mix is our favored form of precipitation this time of year.  It’s a random combination of snow, sleet, ice pellets, freezing rain, and rain.  The weather forecasters aren’t quite sure what will be hitting the ground at any particular moment.  The only thing they agree on is that whatever it is, you can slip on it.

(My wife often said that Baskin-Robbins should offer a flavor of  ice cream by this name.  It would come pre-marketed because everyone in this area hears that term all season long.)

We get wintry mix so often in this area because the temperature is typically just about freezing when it snows. Might get snow, might get rain.  You never know until it gets here and makes up its mind.

This morning, it’s 30 F with high humidity.  And so, we’re actually getting just snow.  It melts as it hits, then piles up, and as a result, we end up with a thin layer of slush everywhere, covered with snow.  That will be freezing to ice in random areas throughout the day, and will freeze uniformly tonight.  Tomorrow morning, anywhere that hasn’t been shoveled and salted will have a uniform coating of snow-over-ice.

Let me contrast this with a typical Chicago snowfall.  Typically, it’s 20F or so, everything is already frozen solid, and 4″ of powdery dry snow comes down.  It doesn’t melt.  It doesn’t stick to anything.  People sweep off their sidewalks and life moves on.

Having driven on roads in both areas, I’d trade their coefficient of friction for our coefficient of friction any day.

Finally, hills.  Midwesterners in general don’t have to cope with them.  For sure, they just plain don’t have them in Chicago.  Around here, though, they are a fact of life.  And once you find yourself sliding downhill, on the frozen slush hidden under the snow, there really isn’t much you can do about it.

Bottom line, I’m leaving the car in the garage today.  And the power has gone out now.  So I will just enjoy sitting around the house doing nothing.  For a change

 

 

 

Post #1310: What does 30 electrical miles get you?

 

We haven’t bought gasoline since mid-August, owing to my wife’s purchase of a Prius Prime.  That’s a plug-in (PHEV) version of the Prius, with a battery that’s good for about 30 miles.

It’s not like we stumbled into that purchase.  We researched the offerings available and decided that hit the sweet spot for us.  No range anxiety, no need to rewire the garage, and no need to mortgage the house if that big battery wears out.

And, as you can guess, it’s working out well.  We’re not avoiding traveling, it’s just that most of what we do seems to fit into that 30-mile-a-day limit.  Or nearly.

Which got me to wondering: Is our experience all that unusual?

I mean, people seen to think that little 30-mile battery isn’t much.  It’s certainly no Tesla, either for distance or acceleration, for sure.  But it’s not intended to be, and, from my perspective, that smaller battery is efficient.  Most people who drive a full EV aren’t going to use the full capacity of their battery on most days.

But with this PHEV setup — where the first 30 miles is electric, then it switches to gas — just how much gas would the average American save?

More precisely, how much would total U.S. private passenger vehicle gasoline consumption decline if the first 30 miles of everybody’s driving day were done on electricity?  As if everybody had a Prius Prime, but nobody could recharge mid-day.  And with no change in behavior otherwise.

Turns out that you can’t just look that up.

You can find some glib statistics on (e.g.) the fraction of individual car trips that are short.  And yeah, sure, most car trips are for just a few miles.  I don’t think anybody’s shocked by that. But that’s not the question.

So I turned to the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) to get an answer.  If you ever want to know anything about how Americans get from A to B, that’s the place to look.

I took their file of vehicle trips, reduced it to travel by private passenger vehicle (car, SUV, van, pickup), focused on the vehicle driver only (to avoid duplicating drivers and passengers), and summed up the total miles that each driver drove, each driving day.   That yielded about 150,000 distinct person-days of vehicle driving.  At that point, I (arithmetically) substituted up to 30 miles of that with electricity, and tabulated the results.

Source:  Calculated from 2017 NHTS trip file, weighted estimate.

And there’s your answer.  If you were to substitute the first 30 miles of everybody’s private vehicle driving-day with electrical transport, you’d reduce gasoline-powered miles by 55%.  That’s all the miles on days under 30 miles, and 41 percent of the miles on days over 30 miles.

The upshot is that with PHEV, that 30-mile battery is enough to cut average private-vehicle gasoline consumption more than in half.  All of that, without the truly huge batteries required for full EVs.  And without a whole new electrical infrastructure required to keep EVs going, at least for those of us who can recharge at home out of a standard wall socket.

So I’m back to where I ended up in my last post about electrical transport.  People seem to get all caught up in their underwear about this huge, dramatic, risky blah-blah-blah.

And it’s all nonsense.  If you have a standard outlet available, you have the option to shift most of your personal transportation to electricity.  Right now.  With absolutely no other change in your lifestyle.  And a Federal tax credit, to boot, depending on what you choose.

Well, OK, in truth, we have made a few lifestyle changes.  I buy fewer lottery tickets now.  But that’s probably a good thing.  Otherwise, except for remembering to plug it in, there’s no practical difference between our last (all-gas) car, and our current (nearly-all-electric) car.

And now, judging from the U.S. numbers, we’re probably not alone in terms of the advantages from that small PHEV battery.

Think of it as a case of diminishing returns.  Your first few miles of electric capability get the most bang-for-the-battery-buck.  Here’s the picture, same data source and analysis above, just plotted for PHEV batteries of various sizes.

Source:  Calculated from 2017 NHTS trip file, weighted estimate.

Sure, you can be a purist and insist on nothing but electrical travel.  And more power to you.  But even with zero change in behavior, and no mid-day charging, a PHEV with a modest battery size can get you a long way toward that goal.

Post #1308: Washington Post article on electric vehicles.

 

Today’s Washington Post had yet another article by somebody explaining why they didn’t buy an electric car.

Am I the only one who finds that weird?  Do we see published stories about the great National Parks that the author hasn’t visited?  Detailed reviews of restaurants the author would have liked to have dined in?  Or travelogs about the wonderful luxury hotels they’ve driven by?

You get the drift.

And yet, “Why I didn’t/won’t/can’t/shan’t buy an EV” is a surprisingly robust genre.  Once you realize that it exists, you’ll soon see that it’s pretty common.

For this particular story, maybe it was the author’s high-anxiety writing style.  Maybe it was all the angst-y, over-the-top comments from the general public.

Or maybe I’d just had my fill of the unnecessary us-versus-them-ism.

Because, when you boil it down, there are two types of people in this world:  Those who divide people into two types, and those who don’t.

For whatever reason, I was motivated to leave a comment.  So here’s my comment on that WaPo article, copied in word for word.

There is a compromise: PHEV. That’s a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.

My wife bought a Prius Prime.

We haven’t bought gas since the middle of August.

The Prius Prime is a nice balance of electric and gas. It has enough battery to do somewhere around 30 miles as a fully-capable EV. With no range anxiety. When the battery is discharged, it’s just a regular gas Prius.

It doesn’t have a huge battery. So it plugs into a regular 20 amp household circuit. And with that, it takes maybe five hours to recharge.

When you think about it, a huge battery is kind of a waste, most of the time. Most people do most of their driving pretty close to home. Give them a way to do the first 30 on electric, and you make a real dent in their gas use. Without demanding the materials needed for a 300-mile battery.

Anyway, it was the right choice for us.

We’ll probably fill the tank some time next month. Or maybe not. Depends.

I’m reading all this angsty stuff about the decision to go electric, and all I can say is, you’re making it way too hard.

Go look up what’s happened to the price of batteries over the past decade. There’s a reason that Tesla went from a rich man’s play toy to a car for the masses. It’s called a more-than-ten-fold reduction in the cost of batteries, over the last decade.

All this stuff about, Oh my God, the battery replacement will bankrupt us — that’s so last-generation. Look up the current data before you decide to stress about something that’s increasingly a non-issue.

Post #1219: Bought a Prius Prime

 

That’s the plug-in Prius.  So far, my wife and I like it.  A lot.

This car is a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV).  It’s a standard Prius gas hybrid that also functions as a fully-capable electric vehicle (EV) with limited range.

In a nutshell, this car combines good electric-vehicle performance, easy at-home recharge, no range anxiety, and all the bells and whistles that you expect to get with a modern car.

And it was cheap.  Toyota offered $5000 worth of incentives, the Federal government chipped in $4500 worth of tax credits.  Net of both, the car cost $22,000.

What’s not to like? Continue reading Post #1219: Bought a Prius Prime

Post #1169, Capital Bikeshare, final post for this round

Background

Capital Bikeshare is a short-term bike rental system, currently in the process of expanding in Northern Virginia.  In particular, the Town of Vienna is deciding where to place four (?) Capital Bikeshare stations.  The cost of the stations and bikes will be paid from toll revenues from I-66, so they are “free” in the sense of the capital cost being paid by somebody else.

In theory, the location of the bike racks matters greatly.  Capital Bikeshare is a “docked” bike rental system focusing on short rack-to-rack trips.  Bikes must be picked up and returned to one of Capital Bikeshare’s “docks” (slots in their locking electronic bike racks).  Users may rent a bike via annual membership, one- or multi-day pass, or credit card at time of rental.  Stiff financial penalties apply for failure to return a bike to a rack in a timely fashion.  For the casual user, the first half-hour costs $2, the next costs $2, the third costs $4, and the fourth and higher half-hour increments cost $8 each.  If you (e.g.) use your credit card and accidentally keep a bike outside of a rack/dock for an entire eight-hour day, that will cost you $112.

In other words, this is a bike rental system strongly oriented toward going from A to B, where A and B are Capital Bikeshare racks less than a half-hour bike ride apart.  That makes the location of A and B crucial to the use of the bikes.  To be clear, Capital Bikeshare is NOT a bike rental system for people who just want to ride around for a while and aren’t quite sure of their destination.  Based on their member surveys, their members overwhelmingly use Capital Bikeshare because it’s the quickest way for them to get from A to B, typically a very short work commute.

In practice, however, Capital Bikeshare typically gets so little use out here in the suburbs that it may not much matter where Vienna places its Bikeshare racks.  That was the main finding of my analysis two years ago.  If you have an interest in Capital Bikeshare in Fairfax County or Vienna, VA, you should start by reading my original analysis, in this unnumbered post from 2019.  Two years later, that still stands up as a pretty good piece of analysis.  Among the highlights are the following, all of which are documented in that post:

Each bike rack costs around $45,000

Each bike costs about $1000 (2011 data) or maybe $1200 (2015 data).

In addition to those capital costs, the annual operating cost per bike is somewhere around $2000 (2011 data, Wikipedia) to $2800 (2019, calculated from Arlington, VA fiscal report).

Best guess, on any given weekday, in the peak month, the entire Tyson’s Bikeshare network serves about six people/12 trips (2018 data).  That’s with a fleet of almost 100 bikes deployed across 15 racks.

In Tysons, three-quarters of the Bikeshare racks are used for less than one trip per day, on average.  In Reston, 69% of the racks are used for less than one trip per day (2018 data).

The “use rate” (bike trips per bike-parking slot) of Tyson’s Bikeshare racks is just 6% of the all-metro-area average Bikeshare use rate.

That low use rate was not expected. The 2018 Reston use rate is less than 20% of the level projected for the second year of operation in the Reston bikeshare feasibility study (.pdf).  With this most recent analysis, we know the use rate is not increasing.

The low use rate in Tysons generates an absurdly high cost per trip. My estimate from my prior analysis worked out to an average cost of $25 per bike trip.  That compares to a calculated all-metro-area average cost of just over $3/trip.  Data for Arlington County (.pdf) works out to around $7/trip

Capital Bikeshare is owned by our local governments, but it’s operated by a private for-profit enterprise.  It’s not clear that any entity involved with this has any incentives other than to expand the network regardless of value.

Despite having hundreds of racks placed in this area, there is no standardized process to guide the choice of rack locations.  Every locality gets to decide it on-the-fly.

Current data analysis:  Merrifield.

In my last post, I did enough analysis of more recent Capital Bikeshare trip data to show that nothing had changed materially since my earlier work summarized above.  For the Reston area, the number of trips was stable through 2019, then declined in the pandemic.  For the Tysons area, they increased the number of bike racks by 50%, and and the number of trips increased by about 50% in 2019.  In both cases, the value proposition remains the same or worse than it was.

Let me quickly reiterate the (lack of) value proposition at the low Tysons use rate.  Arlington County’s 2019 financial report (cited above) shows an annual operating cost of $2800 per bicycle.  That’s not hugely different from the roughly-$2000-per-bike 2011 figure cited by Wikipedia.  It’s hard to say what it would be for Fairfax County, but I believe the for-profit company that manages the system gets a fixed per-bike fee.  Let’s assume Fairfax’s average cost could be at the lower $2000 figure.  Tyson’s Bikeshare racks were reported to have almost 100 bikes available on July 4 (see just-prior post).  For all of 2019, there were about 5700 trips that used those racks.  When I do the math, that comes out to an average operating cost of $35 per half-mile bicycle trip.  And that’s assuming that all the capital equipment (racks, bikes, kiosks) is free.

The upshot is that by any plausible estimate, the Tyson’s area cost per trip is ghastly.  For example, you can buy a Schwinn comfort bike for $300.  For the estimated annual operating cost of the Tysons portion of Capital Bikeshare, you could give away about 650 of those bikes, per year.  I’d bet that’s far more than the number of people who used those Tysons bike racks in 2019.  You could literally give every user a new bike, every year, for what it costs to supply those rental bikes.

The only thing that’s really new in this whole picture is Bikeshare at Merrifield.   The three racks in that area seem to have an above-average use rate, at least during the peak months of use.  During the peak month, each bike dock sees about one bike trip every four days (0.27 trips per day).  And while that’s a pitifully low rate compared to the racks in the DC urban core, it’s the best of the four Fairfax County areas.

So, the question is, why?  Why does Merrifield appear to outperform the other three regions of Fairfax County?

My answer is that it combines enough apartments and shopping, near metro, that you get a few people to use those bikes every day.   Although there is no personal identifying information on the trip data, you can use some clues to infer what a typical trip was for.  A short trip, during rush hour, involving the Metro station, by somebody who has an annual membership, is probably a Metro commuter.  By contrast, a long round-trip around a Bikeshare station, mostly by non-members, mostly not during rush hour, is probably somebody out running an errand of some type.

That logic is what I’m trying to show in the table below.  This takes all the trips involving Merrifield stations during the peak months of June to September 2019, and tabulates them by start and end points.

Probably, an average of three commuters used those bikes steadily to get to and from Metro.  That yielded an average of six trips a day.

But on top of that, there’s another 3.4 trips per day that look like shopping/dining trips to me.  These were either long round-trip excursions from a single location, or people going to and from the Mosaic shopping district.  These were typically not during M-F rush hour, and typically involved a lot of casual (non-annual-membership) users.

The upshot is that the entire Merrifield Capital Bikeshare system served a handful of people a day during the peak summer months of 2020.  Six, maybe?  That was three or so commuters to and from Metro from nearby apartments.  And maybe another three or so shoppers/diners, mostly taking round trips from the Metro or the other two destinations.

And that was enough to make the Merrifield area — with 37 functional bike docks, in three racks — by far the busiest in Fairfax County.

Just to beat that dead horse one more time, if Fairfax really does see a $2000+ per year operating cost per bike, as Arlington does, then for the first full year of operation, Merrifield Capital Bikeshare rides had an average operating cost of $9 per trip.

It’s still cheaper to use Uber.

To my eye, the Town of Vienna has none of the advantages that Merrifield does in this situation.  It doesn’t have a lot of purpose-built Millenial-friendly apartments under a mile from Metro.  In fact, there’s nowhere to build apartments within a mile of Metro.  It doesn’t have a hip Millenial-oriented shopping district with a mile of Metro either.  And ditto on the ability to build one.  All of the synergy that yields that outstanding nine or ten bike trips a day in Merrifield will be missing here.

I would therefore expect to see less use of those racks in Vienna — no matter where they are put — than is currently the case in Merrifield.

So, where should Vienna put those Bikeshare racks?  It just doesn’t matter.  But it would be good to be clear about who is paying for the operating costs of keeping them running.  It’s one thing to waste some other taxpayers’ money.  It’s a different thing entirely to waste our own.

 

Post #1168: Capital Bikeshare again, part 2

 

More than two years ago, I looked at Capital Bikeshare use in suburban Fairfax County and concluded that Bikeshare was largely a waste of the taxpayers’ money.   The use of those docked rental bikes was far below what is seen in (e.g.) central D.C., and as a result, the average cost per trip was exceptionally high.  My estimate was that Tysons area Capital Bikeshare trips had an average cost of about $25 each, and an average length of less than a mile.

In this post, I refresh that analysis and see whether or not use of those bikes has changed markedly in the subsequent two years.

To cut to the chase, it appears that the only truly successful Bikeshare stations in this area are the three stations serving Merrifield.  (Successful in the sense of getting a lot of use).  As the Town of Vienna contemplates where to put their its own racks, there may be some lesson there. Or maybe the Vienna racks these will end up just as nearly-useless as they appear to be in Tyson’s, just up the road.

You should look at the just-prior post to see all the links to my original analysis of this issue.

Continue reading Post #1168: Capital Bikeshare again, part 2

Post #1167: Capital Bikeshare, again, part 1.

I see from a recent article in the Tyson’s Reporter that we’re still in the process of bringing Capital Bikeshare to Vienna.

Aside 1:  Capital Bikeshare is a “docked” bike rental system, where bikes must be returned to some Capital Bikeshare rack. The system is set up for short rides, as additional charges typically accrue after the first half-hour. Essentially, you plan your ride to go from one rack to another. The bike itself is a three-speed fat-tired bike weighing nearly 50 pounds. It has been quite successful in the DC urban core, and not very successful at all in the lower-density suburbs.

Aside 2:  I am not a bike hater.  To the contrary, I am lifelong avid bicyclist and have supported the Washington Area Bicyclists’ Association by taking out a lifetime membership.  Locally, I bought (and still ride!) the first bike ever sold by Bikes of Vienna (then Bikes@Vienna), a Bike E semi-recumbent, pictured above.  Back in the days when the internet was new.

To me, knowing what I know, that article seemed ridiculously upbeat about the current and future prospects for Capital Bikeshare in this area.   I say that because, as of two years ago, installing those Capital Bikeshare racks in this area looked like a complete and total waste of money.

And, as is typical for this website, that statement was based on detailed analysis of data.  In this case, public-use data provided by Capital BikeShare.  As of two years ago, the Capital Bikeshare racks at the Tysons and Reston Metro stations were virtually unused.  They might have six riders using them on any given day.  With the high fixed (capital and maintenance) costs, that generated an average cost of $25 per bike trip for the Capital BikeShare bikes at the Tysons Metro.  It would have been vastly cheaper literally to pay for daily Ubers for half-dozen individuals who used the Tysons Capital Bikeshare racks on a typical day.

The upshot is that Capital Bikeshare works well in the dense urban core of Washington DC.  It works to some degree in the densely-built inner suburban areas.  It doesn’t work at all way out in the distant, low-density suburbs.  Not in Virginia, not in Maryland.  Both states saw the same patter of extremely low use (and so extremely high average cost per trip).

This post is just a listing and summary of my prior work.  It’s all pre-pandemic, and uses data slightly more than two years old.  At the time, there was no significant upward trend in use, but clearly I’ll have to revisit it to check that.  A subsequent post will refresh those analyses with more current data, assuming Capital Bikeshare still provides those public-use datasets.

Maybe the world has changed, and it’s all sunshine and roses in the market for 50-pound fat-tired rental bikes, out here in the low-density, no-bike-lane suburbs.  But I suspect that little has changed, and this is just another case of a government entity that has more money than it knows what to do with.  In this case, with a budget force-fed by I-66 tolls.

Prior work

  1.  Maps showing the flow of trips at Tysons and Reston metro (in this unnumbered post).  Those maps are still there.  On a computer, click the gear icon in the lower left corner and turn on animation to see the full visualization of the trips.  The text of the post characterizes the number and direction of trips.  There’s a map for the entire Capital Bikeshare system toward the end of the post.
  2. Detailed analysis of cost and ridership for the Tysons’ Capital Bikeshare racks (in this unnumbered post).  That’s the analysis where I derived the estimate of $25 per trip, average cost, for the Tyson’s racks.  This post also goes through the obscure and muddled economic incentives of this public-private partnership.  (The racks are owned by local government, but the company that runs and services the system is a private entity.)
  3. The huge government per-trip subsidy probably explains why Capital Bikeshare is coming, but private providers of dockless rental bikes and scooters won’t touch Vienna.  You can see the dockless bike alternative laid out in this unnumbered post.
  4. Finally, FWIW, this unnumbered post has a summary of a February 2019 Transportation Safety Commission meeting in which Capital Bikeshare was first discussed.  My take on it is that they were ask skeptical of the success of Capital Bikeshare here as I am.  But we’re still getting Capital Bikeshare, because it’s “free”.