Post #1707: Nobody offers a warranty on the electric range of their plug-in hybrid vehicles?

 

Edit 2/11/2023:  I grossly underestimate the replacement cost for a Prius Prime lithium-ion battery.  Per this thread on Priuschat, the cost of new Prius Prime battery, from the dealer, is $12,595.  Others suggested the dealer took some markup, as the list price from Toyota is just under $10,000.  I say, potato, potahto.

In round numbers, the cost of a new replacement battery is 43% of the cost of a brand-new Prius Prime, base model, current MSRP $28,770.  As a footnote, literally none were available in North America, and the battery has to be shipped directly from Japan.

I should put in the usual EV-weasel-wording:  By the time the battery dies, there will be plenty of good-used batteries in junkyards, from wrecks.  That did, in fact, happen with the original Prius NiMH hybrid battery.  Plus, there may be much cheaper aftermarket replacements at some point.  And so on.  But right here, right now, what I cited are the hard numbers for battery replacement cost.

Original post follows.

Only Volvo offers any warranty on your plug-in hybrid electric range, near as I can tell.

And I think I have finally nailed down why that is.

A typical battery guarantee for a fully electric vehicle (EV) is that a car will lose no more than 25% of range in 8 years/100,000 miles.

Based on research shown below, using actual driving behavior, for a Prius-Prime-like plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), you would expect about 5% of batteries to fail, under that 8-year, no-more-than-25% loss definition.  Just from normal wear-and-tear, as-typically-driven.

So, my guess is that PHEVs don’t get those guarantees because manufacturers would end up replacing too many batteries.

All the more reason to treat your battery gently.


Background

Last week, I found out that my wife’s Prius Prime had no warranty on its electrical range.  Currently, as we drive it, we get mid-30-miles on a charge.  But if that drops to zero, tough.  As long as the car will still run as a hybrid, they battery has not “failed” under Toyota’s 10-year/150,000 mile warranty.

So I got curious.  I already have a list of all 2022 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), from a just-prior post.   I decided to look up the warranty information for as many manufacturers as I could find.

Here’s the results.

Volvo offers a 30% loss-of-range warranty.  If you lose more than that, during the eight-year warranty period, they’ll fix it.

Near as I can tell, none of these other manufacturers offer any warranty whatsoever, on the electrical range of their PHEVs.

Toyota
Kia
Porsche
MINI
Ford
Chrysler
Mitsubishi
Jeep
Hyundai (I think)
BMW (but maybe they decide case-by-case?)

The Hyundai warranty covers EVs, PHEVs, and hybrids, and in separate places says that it definitely covers loss of range, and that it definitely does not cover loss of range.  Your guess is as good as mine, but I’m guessing they cover range for EVs (as required by law) but not for PHEVs.

Originally, I could not understand why Toyota offered no PHEV range warranty.  That situation has now improved.  I’m now baffled why almost nobody offers a PHEV range warranty.

Unfortunately, I think that “no PHEV range warranty” is the industry norm  for precisely the reason stated in the Toyota warranty documents:

 

I’m an economist by training, and I find it this interesting, I guess. When there’s a de-facto industry standard, there’s usually a reason for that.

And I think I understand why no-PHEV-range-warranty is the industry standard.


How many would “fail” under normal driving conditions?

I’ve been searching for an answer for this for the better part of a week.  I posted my thoughts on preserving battery capacity on a chat side dedicted to the Prius (PriusChat), and with a few exceptions, got met with derision.  For sure, nobody there had ever heard of a Prime or the prior version (Plug-in Prius) showing any signs of premature loss of range.  Almost nobody thought that any sort of battery-protecting behavior was necessary.

I finally came across what I believe is a realistic projection of the fraction of Prius-Prime-like vehicles that would fail under the typical EV warranty of no more than 25% range loss in eight years/100,000 miles.

That’s:  Comparison of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Life Across Geographies and Drive Cycles, 2012-01-0666, Published 04/16/2012, Kandler Smith, Matthew Earleywine, Eric Wood, Jeremy Neubauer and Ahmad Pesaran
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, doi:10.4271/2012-01-0666

They used actual driving data from about 800 trips taken by Texans in PHEVs.  The then extrapolated that to eight years of driving behavior.  Their model is not quite perfect, as the modeled vehicle only provides a 10% “buffer” at maximum allowable charge, while the Prius Prime provides 15%.  On the other hand, for the key chart, they did not include (e.g.) the effects of high temperatures on battery life.  (So, no parking your car in the sun in this model, so to speak).

Here’s the key graph, where the most Prius-Prime-like vehicles is the PHEV40.

Source:  Cited above.

In a nutshell, only counting the wear-and-tear from normal driving and charging, they expect the average user to lose 20% of range by the end of the eighth year.  And about 5% of users would experience in-the-neighborhood-of 25% range loss.

If they were to throw in the effects of variation in climate (hot climates kill batteries quicker), and variation in practices regarding storing the car fully charged (which also kills batteries quicker), I might guess that around 10% of drivers might exceed that 25% loss threshold within an eight-year warranty window.

To put that in perspective, car manufacturers as a whole spend about 2.5% of their total revenues on warranty repairs (reference).  A ten percent failure rate of this part, replaced at new-battery cost shown above, would by itself account for (roughly) 4 percent of Toyota revenues from Prius Prime sales.

As far as I’m concerned, this solves the mystery of the missing warranty.  (Almost) nobody offers anything like the standard EV warranty, because if they did, they’d have to replace an unacceptably large fraction of batteries under warranty.  And that would lead to an unacceptably high warranty cost.

All the more reason to avoid unnecessary wear-and-tear on a PHEV battery.

Post #1704: My $10 battery-saving device

 

Source:  Amazon

They say there’s no saint like a reformed sinner.

And, I swear this is going to be my last post on electric vehicle batteries.

I just need some closure.  Because I’m still fairly ticked about this entire episode.

For a year and a half, I adopted the obvious but destructive habit of plugging in my wife’s car as soon as I returned from a trip.  That way, it would always be fully charged when we wanted to use it next.  Easy-peasy.

As it turns out, discussed in the just-prior post:

  • charging it to 100% shortens battery life
  • charging it to 100% and letting it sit around shortens battery life a lot

(And when I say 100%, I mean to the highest charge level the car will allow.  I realize that Toyota built in a roughly 15% buffer, so that the literal state of charge is around 85% when it says the battery is full.  All car makers do that.  And some people say that provides all the protection you need.  But I don’t.  More importantly, the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) doesn’t.  The battery life simulation below assumes a 10% buffer, so SOCmax is 90% true state-of-charge.  You can take their chart, relabel the lines by adding 5% to each label, and that ought to be a pretty good estimate of what you should expect with a Prius Prime.  And, based on that chart, you would expect to shorten the life of the battery substantially if you always charge to (what the car tells you is) 100%.)

Source:  Optimizing Battery Usage and Management for Long Life, Kandler Smith, Ying Shi, Eric Wood, Ahmad Pesaran, Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado,
Advanced Automotive Battery Conference Detroit, Michigan June 16, 2016  Annotations in red are mine.

 

If I had only:

  • Read the fine print in Toyota’s highly-touted 10 year/150,000 mile battery warranty to realize that there is zero warranty for loss of range.
  • Scrutinized page 143 of my 800-page owner’s manual, and realized the significance of this sentence:
  • Use the charging schedule function as much as possible in order to fully charge the hybrid battery (traction battery) immediately before starting off.”
  • And had the wit to realize that while Toyota said “Use the charging schedule function” they actually meantdon’t let the battery sit around fully charged.”

If I had put all that together — for this new car that was functioning and driving perfectly, getting better-than-EPA gas and electrical mileage — I would never have made that mistake.

Instead, I probably would have figured out that the $10 countdown timer, pictured above, would have prevented almost all the abuse I was heaping onto that (plausibly) $5000 battery.

The only new thing to report is that the cheap timer picture above seems able to handle the 12-amp charging current just fine.  And I’ve changed my bad habits.  My new policy is to give the car an hour of charging, if the charge is low when I get back from a trip.   It’s a simple as plugging it in and pushing a button.  But otherwise, I’ll put the car on to charge, for a few hours, when I make the coffee in the morning, so it spends the greatest amount of time a some moderate state of charge.

That cheap, simple change is all it took to eliminate a potentially battery-killing bad habit.

My sole remaining concern is that some EV charging systems only “balance the battery pack” or equalize the voltage across all cells at the very end of the charge cycle.  If that’s true for the Prius Prime, I’m going to want to do an occasional 100% charge in order to get that done from time to time.

An unexpected bonus is that I can take advantage of the “charging curve”.  The closer you get to 100% charged, the slower the charging gets.  A rough rule-of-thumb is that the last 25% of range takes half the total charging time.  And so, while the car takes more than five hours for a full charge, it only takes an hour to go from ~40% to ~80% charged.

Anyway, no saint like a reformed sinner.  I hope I can be the person that I want to be.  As pictured below.

Source:  Electrek.co.  Annotations in red are mine.

 

Post #1703: Four simple rules for protecting the lithium-ion battery in a Prius Prime

 

Background

Source:  Geotab.

So far, on average, the lithium-ion batteries in the Prius Prime appear to be holding up well.  The small sample of 2017 Prius Primes used for the graph above lost range at a rate of just four percent over the first three years of operation.  That’s just a touch better than the average EV.

Within that overall good average, some individuals are going to get outstanding battery life, and other’s won’t. 

That’s not a matter of luck.  For example, the Geotab site (source of the graph above) summarizes the predictable loss of battery life due to high heat, fast charging, and so on.

As Toyota itself says (emphasis mine):

 

Source: 2021 Prius Prime warranty booklet.

As far as I can tell, the use of “drastically” above is correct.  Based on the National Renewable Energy Laboratories analyses presented in the prior post, treating the battery gently could result in two-to-three fold increase in battery life, compared to abusing it.

Here’s a bit of data from Tesla to illustrate.  The X-axis is how much the battery has been used, in total KWH.  The Y-axis is the remaining range.  (Note:  Full range of the vertical axis as shown is about a 20% capacity loss of the battery.)  There is, in fact, quite a spread around the average capacity loss.   Of the two data points highlighted, for roughly the same battery use, one has lost about 5% of capacity, the other has lost nearly 20%.

Source:  Electrek.co.  Annotations in red are mine.

 


The rules.

The rules for long battery life given below are based on the evidence and analysis in the just-prior post.  But, in fact, these are all well-known rules for extending lithium-ion battery life.  If you look around, you’ll see that more-or-less everyone says more-or-less the same thing.

Rule 1:  Avoid charging to 100%.

  • Don’t charge to 100% unless you absolutely need that full range.
  • More importantly, don’t charge to 100% and let the car sit unused.
    • If you’re going to charge to 100%, use the charge scheduling software so that the car reaches 100% just before you drive it.
  • Even more importantly, don’t charge it to 100% and let it cook in the sun.
  • The most common suggestion is to charge to 80%.  Not clear if that specific number is anything more than a rule-of-thumb.

Rule 2:  Avoid temperature extremes, particularly high heat.

Rule 3:  Avoid high-current events in EV mode.

  • Avoid rapid acceleration.
  • Avoid fast stops.
  • Arguably, avoid driving at highway speeds in EV mode.
    • The faster you go, the gentler your driving should be.
  • Minimize high-current events by driving in EV AUTO mode — punch the right-most button on your driving mode selector.

Rule 4:  Use shallow charge-discharge cycles whenever possible.

  • Get out of the habit of charging to 100% and discharging to 0%.
  • Get into the habit of charging/discharging over a narrower range, e.g., charge to 75%, recharge when it hits 25%.

There are a handful of rules that aren’t cited here because they don’t apply to the Prius Prime.  Frequent use of a fast charger reduces battery life.  But you can’t do that in a Prime anyway.  Discharging the battery down to zero is bad, but, again, you can’t do that in a Prime.  The Prime reserves the last portion of capacity for use as the hybrid battery.

In a sense, this is just a natural extension of what prudent drivers have done all along to avoid unnecessary repair costs.  In a conventional car, if you want your brake pads to last, you aim for nice, gentle stops.  And now, if you want your battery electrodes to last, you do the same thing.  Plus some.


Discussion, Part 1:  An unusual automotive situation.

For the last two posts (#1702, #1701), I’ve been getting my mind around the fact that there’s no warranty on the EV range of a Prius Prime.  The more deeply I dug into this, the more appalled I got.  Briefly:

  1. Most people buy this car, instead of a standard Prius, specifically because the car can be driven as an EV for a considerable distance (25 miles, per EPA).
  2. But Toyota provides no warranty on that key EV capability.  If your EV range drops to zero, but the car still runs as a gas hybrid, tough luck.  (You have to read the “exclusions” section of the warranty document (above) to know that.)
  3. Worse, the owner’s behavior can greatly affect the lifespan of the battery.
  4. Worse still, many of the unchangeable defaults on the Prius Prime are not optimized for best battery life.
  5. The simplest way to use the car — plug it in when  you get home, drive it the next day — is really bad for battery life.
  6. Toyota’s directions on best practices consists of a brief section buried in the middle of the 800-page owner’s manual.

Source:  2021 Prius Prime owner’s manual

In short, the lithium-ion battery in a Prius Prime is an expensive, effectively un-warrantied car part that you, the owner, can easily screw up over time.   The obvious default consumer behavior — plug it in when you get home, and let it charge — is absolutely the wrong thing to do.  Many of Toyota’s default settings do not optimize the life of the battery, and you have to work around those manually if you want to get best battery life.

This is so out-of-touch with modern automotive engineering that I’ve had a hard time getting my mind around it.  If you want to get the most out of that battery, then you, the owner, have to go out of your way to do that.

Think about it.  When the car needs an oil change, it tells you.  If you run low on oil, it’ll shut itself off to avoid damage.  But if your behavior is quietly cutting years off the life of your lithium-ion battery?  Nada.  It’s entirely on you to figure that out and adjust accordingly.


Discussion Part 2:  YOLO, or once you’ve lost EV range, there’s probably no going back.

Premature battery wear just gets worse when you put it in the context of what should be an extremely-long-lived vehicle.  I’m guessing that as long as the car runs as a gas hybrid, few people will be willing to pay to replace that battery merely to restore full EV function.  Best guess, once that EV capacity is destroyed, it’s gone for good.

First, all other things equal, I would expect these cars to have an extremely long service life.  That’s a consequence of the robustness of electric motors, and the fact that you have both EV and internal-combustion-engine (ICE) power on board.  For example, my wife’s car has about 11K miles on it in a year-and-a-half of use.  But I’m guessing the gas engine has no more than 3K miles on it.  At that rate, that car will hit 150K on the gas engine literally next century. 

I don’t expect it to last that long.  But if our 18-year-old Prius is still running well with 230K on it, I see no reason this car — and many others like it — couldn’t make it to 500K miles.

Extreme car lifetimes are the trend, not the exception.  When I was a kid, odometers only had five digits, because it was almost-unheard-of for a car to make it to 100,000 miles.  You more-or-less expected to need an engine rebuild (“valves and rings”) over that period.  Today, a car that failed with only 100K on the odometer would be considered a lemon.  (Well, surely a Toyota that failed at that point would be.)  So why shouldn’t the next generation of cars kick that up a notch?  Tesla, for example, predicts 300K to 500K service life before the batteries need to be replaced.  I don’t see why Toyota can’t match Tesla in that regard.

My point is, Toyota might consider 150K miles to be “the life of the car”, but I sure don’t.  And I expect that for this particular model, a whole lot of them are going to last much longer than that.  So the question isn’t “will this battery last 10 years”, the minimal question that needs to be asked is, “how’s this going to drive 20 years from now”.

Here’s the final reason you want to take really good care of that battery:  Replacing the battery to restore EV range will not be cost-effective.  If you lose most of your EV range, but the car still runs fine as a gas hybrid, replacing that battery, solely to restore EV range, will almost certainly not pay for itself in fuel savings, for most users.  So, if not for your own use, then for the string of people who will own the car after you, you really want to make the battery last as as possible.

Above, you see how the calculation looks for me, under the assumption that the battery lasts 3000 full charge/discharge cycles.  (Tesla, which uses more-or-less the same cells, originally claimed that their batteries could do 1500 cycles before losing 30% of range.  Real-world data from Tesla suggest slightly better performance: just 10% capacity loss at 200,000 miles (reference), which projects out to about 22% average loss of range over 1500 full charge/discharge cycles.)  This calculation uses my current gas and electricity costs, and grid footprint, and assumes a new battery could be installed for $5K, which is the best rumor I’ve read so far about that cost.

The gas savings from restoring full EV range wouldn’t come close to the (assumed) $5K cost of battery replacement.  Based on that, I’m guessing that as long as the car still runs well as a gas hybrid, lost of most or all EV range will not motivate most owners to re-battery the car.

Edit 2/11/2023:  I grossly underestimate the replacement cost for a Prius Prime lithium-ion battery.  Per this thread on Priuschat, the cost of new Prius Prime battery, from the dealer, is $12,595.  Others suggested the dealer took some markup, as the list price from Toyota is just under $10,000.  I say, potato, potahto.

In round numbers, the cost of a new replacement battery is 43% of the cost of a brand-new Prius Prime, base model, current MSRP $28,770.  As a footnote, literally none were available in North America, and the battery has to be shipped directly from Japan.

I should put in the usual EV-weasel-wording:  By the time the battery dies, there will be plenty of good-used batteries in junkyards, from wrecks.  That did, in fact, happen with the original Prius NiMH hybrid battery.  Plus, there may be much cheaper aftermarket replacements at some point.  And so on.  But right here, right now, what I cited are the hard numbers for battery replacement cost.

Original post follows.

My conclusion is that as far as the Prius Prime battery is concerned, it’s a straight-up case of YOLO.  I expect these cars to last a long time.  And I expect that almost all of them are only ever going to have that original factory battery, no matter how long they last.

So, if you bought this car for the EV capability, the moral of the story is, do what you can to take care of the battery.


Discussion Part 3:  Manual timers, radiant barrier cargo area mat, and other workarounds for unhelpful Toyota defaults.

This last is just a list of things I’ve come across that I wish I could change.  Perhaps some future software update/production change will address some of these issues.

No way to charge to less than 100%.  This is probably the most critical problem.  The default is to charge until the battery is full (100%).  Near as I can tell, there’s no way to change that. 

Other vehicles, such as Tesla, allow the user to charge to less than 100%.  That’s good for battery life.

As it stands, the only way to keep the charge below 100% in a Prime is to interrupt the charge circuit yourself.  I’ve bought a “countdown” timer for this purpose (see prior post).  Based on the car’s state of charge, and with a target of no more than 80% charge, I’ll set the timer manually to stop the charge at roughly the right point.

It doesn’t get more Mickey-Mouse than that.  But Toyota does not provide any way to stop the charge before 100%.

No way to set EV AUTO as default on startup.  The default is hard-coded as EV.  That is, you lock the car into using the battery no matter what.  If you want EV AUTO — so that the car will automatically switch on the gas engine if it’s stressed, rather than withdraw high current from the battery — you have to remember to punch that button every time you start the car.

So I now have a sticky note, on the steering wheel, that says “EV AUTO”, to remind me.  More Mickey-Mousery, but Toyota does not allow you to change the default mode at startup.  Or if they do, I sure haven’t seen it.

No warning for excessive current draw/no native monitor for battery current.  I understand that Toyota set the car up with limits on peak battery current.  Those have to be set to allow adequate emergency acceleration.  The almost certainly are NOT set up to provide peak battery life.

I’d like to have something that lets me know when the car is drawing a high current out of the battery.  Not prevent it, just let me know when that’s happening.

In the past, I’ve had cars that had an “eco” light on the dash.  Push down on the gas too hard, and the light would come on to remind you to back off for better gas mileage.  Or to shift, back in the days of manual transmissions.  That’s all I’d want, really.  Just a little reminder not to drive in such a way as to shorten battery life unnecessarily.

As with the first two, I’m going to have to roll my own if I want that capability.  I assume the current generation of ScanGauge or similar will let me see instantaneous battery current.  So, in effect, I’m going to have to add an aftermarket gauge to the car, because Toyota does not provide that as a native capability.

Edit 1/27/2024:  I bought and plugged in a ScanGauge III, and it works perfectly for this purpose.  (It also lets you check battery temperature, battery fan operation, and other more routine stuff, such as tire pressure.) 

My main observations are that a) for high-current events, the brake pedal is more dangerous than the accelerator (even a moderately hard stop can generate 125 amps of regen current), and b) the “eco” bar on the Prius display is set to encourage you to draw no more than about 50 amps of current on acceleration.  That 50-amp draw works out to a “2C” rate of discharge (the amount which, if you kept it up, would drain the battery in half an hour), a reasonable rule-of-thumb for limiting current draw of a lithium-ion battery.  That also works out to about (350V x 50A = ) 17.5 KW of power, or about 23 horsepower.  Which, in turns, works out to a rate of acceleration that pisses off Northern Virginia drivers, so I routinely push the car over that limit when I’m in traffic.  If left to my own devices, I do what the car tells me to do.

Bottom line is that the eco-meter on the dashboard tells you all you need to know about acceleration.  Obey it if you can.  For braking, though, it’s not helpful.  (Which, when you think about it, is no surprise.)  Absent a ScanGauge or similar, you just have to realize that a heavy foot, at high speed, generates a lot of power.  Per Newton’s laws (Post #1618), to stop the car in a given distance, with minimum peak current, you start with a light foot and press harder as the car slows.   

No radiant barrier, parked-car ventilation system or other summer heat protection.  Toyota specifically warns you not to charge the battery up, then let the car sit in the hot sun.  Which is great, but it would be even better if there were some entirely-passive or partially-passive methods built into the car to limit interior summertime temperatures when parked.

BMW, for example, offers a “parked car ventilation system”, which is exactly what it sounds like (reference).  You can ask the car to run the fan and blow fresh air through the car while it is parked, to keep the temperature down.  Tesla offers a similar function as “cabin overheat protection (reference).  (In addition to a “Dog” setting, which will run the AC when parked.)

You know what’s even more irritating?  Toyota has one too, but it was only offered on the Prius when you got solar panels on the roof.  Toyota literally knows how to do this, already, they just didn’t bother to offer it for the Prius Prime.  Given that summer heat is quite destructive to a lithium-ion battery, you’d think that Toyota could have modified a bit of computer programming to add this already-existing feature to the Prius Prime.

And even more irritating than that?  The Prime is perfectly capable of running the AC for a few minutes before you get into the car.  You can trigger that with the fob, or with the Toyota phone app.  But there’s no way to automate that to (say) keep the interior temperature below 100F.

For my part, I’m at least going to add a sheet of radiant barrier in the cargo area.  Basically, a space blanket, but tougher.  Without getting into the physics of it, as long as there is an air gap on one side or the other, radiant barrier prevents passage of infrared equally well whether the shiny side faces up (into the sunlight) or down (into the cargo compartment).  (Weird but true, which is why I’m not going to get into the physics of it.)  So if the cargo compartment is empty, it would work just about equally well if laminated to the underside of the tonneau cover cloth, or just sitting on the floor of the cargo compartment.

Given the critical role that heat plays in damaging lithium-ion batteries, you’d think that this cheap-and-simple aid would be standard on Prius Primes.  Something as simple as reflective mat for the cargo area.

Edit 1/27/2024:  In the end, a “reflective floor mat” is exactly what I ended up with.  I took a piece of construction radiant barrier and covered the floor mat in the cargo area.  That will work as as radiant barrier as long as that’s open to the air above it, whether or not the tonneau cover is open or closed.  The surface is dull enough that I don’t have problems with reflections showing up on the back glass then the cover is open.

I might go so far as to add one of those stick-in-the-window power vents.  Those always struck me as gimmicks.  But given that heat is bad for the battery, I guess $20 invested in testing one of those may be money well-spent.


Summary

I don’t want to hype the issue of preserving battery life.  The car does a pretty good job of protecting that battery from abuse.  And, at this point, there’s little doubt that most Prius Prime owners are likely to get a satisfactory amount range, over a satisfactory lifetime, for that battery.

But some of what it takes to preserve battery life is up to you.  If you simply plug your car in when you get home, then drive it away fully charged in the morning, you are definitely not doing right by your battery.  Modifying your habits, based on a few simple rules, will go a long way toward preserving the range of your battery as the car ages.