Category: COVID through 2022

Source:  Wikihow, How to Make Leather Vambraces,

I vaguely recall a story about naval cadets being required to wear a napkin on their sleeves, as some way to teach table manners.  I haven’t been able to track that story down, but I’m currently doing a little experiment to see if wearing a paper towel on my sleeve can keep me from touching my face with my hands.

As you know, US CDC now advises you not to touch your face.  In theory, if your hands are contaminated, you can transfer virus to eyes, nose, or mouth, where it can gain entry into your system.

I don’t know about you, but just thinking about not touching my face makes my face itch.  So now I have a paper … I think the right term is a vambrace (thus demonstrating that I have read way too much historical fiction).

A long-sleeved shirt, a clean paper towel, and two rubber bands, and I now have a paper town attached to my forearm.  When I get the “itchies”, I see it, and I use that, not my hands.  Not clear that it does much good in the home, but I want to get in practice for my next grocery shopping trip.

So far so good.

 

Source:  Amazon.com

Looks like the US CDC is dragging its feet on adding use of masks, in public, to its existing guidance on proper hygiene in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic.

That, despite the head of the Chinese CDC calling that “The big mistake” that both the US and Europe are making. And then explaining exactly why that’s important — droplet transmission of disease (Post #590)

Let me briefly explain how absolutely indefensible the US CDC position is.  Current US CDC guidance says, if you are sick, wear a mask in public to prevent droplet transmission of disease.  In other words, if you know you are sick, you should wear a mask when in public, to minimize the spread of disease.

Perfectly reasonable. It’s a huge public health risk to have infectious individuals walking around without a mask.

Yeah, well, what the head of the Chinese CDC said was, in effect, there are a lot of people who are sick, but they just don’t know it, or they don’t know yet.

Ah, c’mon.  At this point, any moron can put two and two together.  If it’s critically important that infectious people wear a mask when in public, and many people can’t tell if they are infectious or not … do I really have to finish the sentence?

Then we all need to wear masks when public.  As a simple matter of public health.

So while the Federal government continues to drag its feet, maybe the private sector can step up on our behalf.  And here, my bet is on Amazon, because, near as I can tell, they have been the most responsible of the big players, in this crisis.  (This, from studing masks for sale on Amazon versus Ebay yesterday).

Amazon owns Whole Foods.  Amazon has access to a ready supply of cheap paper masks that are not suitable for medical use.  (I know that because those are available … on Amazon.)  I think Amazon should post a sign, at every Whole Foods, stating that as of some date:  NO MASK, NO SERVICE.  With a “greeter” ready to hand out paper masks to anyone who wants to shop, but doesn’t have a mask.

Heck, at this point, I’d settle for some kindler/gentler/stupider version of that, such as “we encourage patrons to use a mask when shopping”, along with a pile of paper masks.

My guesses?

First, that would be great for business.  If they become perceived as the “clean” store, who’s going to shop anywhere else?

Two, that will put tremendous social pressure on the other grocery stores to follow suit.

And, so, Three, maybe we, the people, can fix “The big mistake” that our Federal government has made in this pandemic.  And allow the CDC to lead from the rear, by eventually changing its guidance, once it see what people have already chosen to do.

Any readers out there know anyone in the Amazon/Whole Foods hierarchy?  If so, please pass this along.  I bet all it takes is one bold move, and we can get the message across to the American people that they need to mask up in public.  And, not coincidentally, put a halo on the first company to do this.

The USA did not get to be a superpower by being systematically stupid about things that really matter.  But I’ll bet we can lose that status by that route.

I’ll leave you with this, for your contemplation.  If you had your choice, which group would you put the USA in?

Source:  www.maskssavelives.org

Late yesterday, the Washington Post reported that the CDC is considering recommending that we all wear masks when in public.

For those of you who wish to avoid newspaper paywalls at this time, in the interest of speed, the trick is to find an add-on that will let you disable javascript in your browser, then disable javascript and reload the page.  For most but not all newspapers, text but not photos will then be visible.

I’m going to talk about that just a bit.  I fervently hope the CDC will recommend public mask use as an adjunct to social distancing.  But for best compliance, I hope they will add some nuances. The reason for nuance is in red below. Continue reading Post #589: Third mask-oriented post: Maybe the CDC will issue guidance on public mask use.

OK, next question:  Fine and dandy if this appears an obviously cost-effective gamble (just prior post).  Where are we going to get 250,000,000 masks?  In the next couple of days?

That’s the wrong question.

Here’s the right first question:  What is the best expedient mask, that can be made in a typical community, quickly and in volume, from commonly available materials and semi-skilled labor?

A Victory Mask, if you will.

Lord knows, a crapload of people have a crapload of time on their hands just right now.  It’s a huge labor force.  All of us could take an hour off from streaming video, and chip in.  If we had guidance, and leadership that endorsed the concept.

I say, let’s ask the US Army Corps of Engineers for a design or two.  They seem to have their act together.

If there is a single figure who appears to know what he’d going, who inspires confidence, who talks sense, and who looks like he can get done what needs to be done, I say it’s Lt. General Todd Semonite, Chief of Engineers and Commanding General of the US Army Corps of Engineers.  Watch this clip (caution, it’s Rachel Maddow), and see if you agree.

I realize they have more than enough on their plate.  But you wonder if they couldn’t just knock out a pattern for this, without a huge diversion of effort.

Heck, in some sense, this is well within their current mission.  A bed that isn’t going to be filled is a bed that doesn’t need to be built.  Kind of a reverse Roemer’s Law.

I’m going to work on my best shot at this.  Just examining materials, I’m not immediately dismissing 3M Filtrete plus Tyvek as a reasonable basis for reasonable multi-fabric-layer mask.  But I have no way even to conceive of how to test it.

Clearly, there’s no way that 3M could ever endorse that use.  They’d get sued if they did.  But there’s nothing to stop US citizens from using it “off label”.  If it has any sort of effectiveness at all.

Barring the US Army Corps of Engineers, where are the Mythbusters when you need them?  Seems like an ideal project for them to work out.

Source:  www.maskssavelives.org

I have worn a beard of some sort pretty much since my mid-20s.  I’m clean shaven now.  And that’s because I’m not going to enter any enclosed public space without wearing a mask, until such time as I can get vaccinated against this.  And a surgical mask doesn’t work well with a goatee.  So, it’s time to shave.

That mask use runs contrary to current CDC guidance.  But I’m not the only one disagreeing with CDC guidance in this regard.  This article was brought to my attention by a colleague, and I think everybody in the USA should read it.  Start with that.

And it looks like, nationally, a lot of people are more-or-less coming to the same decision.  Fully realizing that the main purpose of the internet is to allow crazy people to find each other and reinforce their views, the push to use some sort of mask in public, or at least to question the official CDC guidance, appears to be growing.

At present, I’m sitting here trying to sift through the available science on masks.  I cannot tell you that there is a good evidence basis behind wearing a mask.  I’m pretty sure that cheap ones don’t do much to protect you, but I’m beginning to suspect that they do something.  And that, as importantly, they do something to protect others from you.

So, I know what science questions I need to ask, I’m just not finding answers. And my profession isn’t medicine, I don’t really have the bona fides to answer those questions anyway.

But, as an economist, I am qualified to do a quick little cost benefit analysis.  Let me do it in the form of a word problem.

A 3M Aseptex non-sterile mask retails for about $0.40.  Let’s say that universal use of those masks, by adults, would shorten the pandemic a bit.  Let’s say that adults can reuse them as some hospitals now are, by the simple expedient of putting them in a paper bag to dry overnight.  And let’s further say that, at some point, this pandemic is going to grind the US economy to a halt.  There are about 250 million adults in the US.  And the 2019 US GDP was $21.44 trillion dollars.

Question:  How much would universal mask use have to shorten this pandemic, in order for it to be cost-effective.

Answer:  About three minutes.  If universal mask use shortened the duration of the US coronavirus epidemic by three minutes, it would be cost-effective.

Calculation:  Total cost is $0.40 x (250×10^6) = $1×10^8.  (A hundred million dollars).  The fraction of a year’s GDP is $1×10^8/$2.144×10^13 = 4.66×10^-6.  There are 365*24*60 = 5.26*10^5 minutes in a year.  And so that fraction of GDP amounts to 4.66×10^-6 X 5.26*10^5 = 2.45 minutes.

For the more medically minded, we could also do this by focusing narrowly on medical care costs, and do this in terms of cost-to-treat.  How many (say) hospitalizations would need to be avoided by universal adult mask use, in order for the reduction in hospital costs to offset the cost of the masks?  Guessing that a 12-day ICU-intensive is the median for this, based on the previously discussed WHO report on the Chinese experience, I’d guess a cost per discharge around $100,000.  If masks are $0.40, then if universal mask use merely avoided one hospitalization for every 250,000 US adults, it would be worthwhile from a cost-benefit standpoint.  Since there are 250 million adults, that means that if it merely avoids 1000 coronavirus hospitalizations, over the course of the pandemic, it more than pays for itself, merely looking narrowly at hospitalization cost, and ignoring the much larger GDP loss as the economy shuts down.  Either way, seems like a bet well worth taking.

It’s not rocket science.  Masks are cheap.  GDP loss is hugely expensive. Hospitalizations are somewhat expensive.  All that a policy of universal mask use needs is just a tiny probability of modest success, and such a strategy would be  hugely cost-effective. In my opinion, the evidence, such as it is, gives you that tiny probability, and then some.  It’s a cheap bet.

Seriously, in terms of taking a bet on something, that seems like a pretty cheap one, to me.  As in, what on earth are we waiting for?  It may be time to push the medical establishment aside on this issue, and let the economic consequences of action or inaction drive the decision, despite possibly ambiguous scientific evidence.

Continue reading Post #587: Mask-oriented post #1

I’m going to drop some threads here, and emphasize others.  And probably change the splash page, as this blog no longer has anything to do with MAC zoning.

But first, here’s a brief note on temporarily avoiding newspaper paywalls during this crisis.  It is, in some sense, anti-social of me to publicize this, but I keep linking to articles in newspapers that you cannot easily read without this technique.  Here goes:  Disable javascript in your browser.  Many (but not all) newspaper paywalls use javascript to obscure the text.  If you temporarily disable javascript in your browser, then reload a page, you can frequently read the text (but not, e.g., see the pictures).   This is, I believe, why most browsers make it incredibly difficult to disable javascript these days, when it was a common feature in the past.  For Firefox, I use a legacy javascript on-off applet, which I first picked up because javascript is a security hazard.  If you can find a javascript on-off applet, and install it, and use it, you will be able to read paywalled articles on some, but not all, newspaper sites.

And now I return to my regularly scheduled programming. Continue reading Post #586: Housekeeping issues for this website

Again, I’ll make this rare plea:  If you know someone in a position of responsibility that you think would benefit from reading this post, please pass this on.

---

Recall Post #573, where I talked about aerosol transmission of COVID-19 versus droplet transmission.  In particular, where I note that the issue is tiny “aerosol” particles (less than 5 microns) that can remain suspended in air, resulting in “airborne transmission” of the disease.  Versus droplets (larger particles) that rapidly fall out of the air, but can result in “droplet transmission” of the disease if you are near somebody who (e.g.) coughs, and a droplet lands on you (and directly infects you by (e.g.) landing in your mouth, or indirectly infects you because you, yourself, manage to transfer that material to your mouth/nose/eyes by touching your face.).

CDC advice to the public focuses primarily (perhaps, solely) on preventing droplet transmission.  That is, in large part, the theory behind social distancing.  Stay out of range, and don’t touch your face, and wash your hands.  A lot.

To which I added, and shut up in public.  Not for your benefit.  But for everybody else’s benefit.  Based on the potential for aerosol (“airborne”) transmission.  Because speech generates large numbers of aerosol (5 micron or smaller) particles.

Now go read this article.

Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected

By Richard Read, LA Times, March 29, 2020, 7:34 PM.

From a single chorus practice with a 60 member chorus, where nobody was visibly ill, where they used hand sanitizer at the door, where nobody shook hands, or hugged — 45 have now tested positive for coronavirus. Continue reading Post #585: Really, no kidding — shut up in public. Aerosol transmission of this disease appears possible.

Source:  Analysis of Johns Hopkins coronavirus map database.

Still too soon to tell if we’ve hit the inflection point.

There’s a farmers’ market at the Holy Comforter church this morning (3/29/2020). 

It ends at 1:30 today. 

It is completely stocked, and there are no customers.  I mean, clearly more vendors than customers.  They apparently more-or-less failed to advertise it.

So let me assure you, you’ll have no problem maintaining proper social distancing.

Maybe you want some fresh produce, meat, eggs, cheese, baked goods, etc.

Maybe you want to support local agriculture.   Honestly, at the current rate, these folks aren’t going to cover the cost of the gas it took to get them here.

Maybe you just feel the need to talk to somebody other than your immediate family.  Out in the fresh air.  Among what has to be the lowest-risk set of vendors you’re going to come across in the near future.

Maybe you just want a rare opportunity to go to a farmers’ market, on a Sunday morning, in an Episcopal church parking lot.

However you slice it, this is a fine opportunity.  But it’s a limited time offer.

Please pass the word.