It still looks like we’re on track for an early September peak of the current wave. The U.S. stands at 45.1 new cases / 100K / day, the one-week increase was 14%.
Continue reading Post #1218: COVID-19 trend, finishing out the week.
Author: chogan@directresearch.com
Post #1217: COVID-19 trend to 8/19/2021, and the shifting ratio of deaths to hospitalizations.
Well, we haven’t peaked yet, but it looks like we’re close. The U.S. is now at 44.5 new cases / 100K / day, up from 43.5 yesterday. Seven-day growth rate for new cases per 100K per day is 14%. Continue reading Post #1217: COVID-19 trend to 8/19/2021, and the shifting ratio of deaths to hospitalizations.
Post #1216: COVID-19 Delta wave, is this the peak?
Today the U.S. stands at 43.5 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population per day. That’s not materially different from yesterday. That figure grew just 13% over the last seven days.
There are still a lot of states where new case counts are rising. But as of today, we have six states where new case counts have fallen over the past seven days.
More importantly, if we focus on the half-dozen states that collectively account for half of all new U.S. COVID-19 cases, four of them appear to have reached a peak.
It’s fairly clear that the top of the U.S. Delta wave is not far off. We’ll only know in hindsight, but it might even be today.
If you’re not vaccinated yet, don’t get vaccinated for the Delta wave. It’s way too late for that. Get vaccinated in anticipation of the U.S. winter wave.
Continue reading Post #1216: COVID-19 Delta wave, is this the peak?
Post #G21-047: Canning lid shortage revisited mid-August 2021
This post is about the ongoing shorting of lids for home canning in the U.S. The only value-added here is that I’ve been tracking this for a while, so I can give some perspective on how things are evolving.
Briefly, U.S.-made disposable lids are much harder to find now than they were when I posted on this back in May. In my area, I found one retailer (Tractor Supply) that would ship them to store for pickup. On-line, they are still available from Amazon, but almost nowhere else. On-line prices appear unchanged to up slightly.
By contrast, there is no on-line shortage of foreign- (i.e., Chinese-) made lids. Prices appear to be falling, with some Amazon offers now in the $0.15-$0.22 per lid range, for lids in bulk. That’s down from about $0.30 when I checked back in May 2021.
U.S.-made re-usable lids (Tattler, Harvest Guard) are unchanged in price, but only the more expensive ones (Tattler, about $1 per lid) are freely available. The less-expensive Harvest Guard lids appear to be back-ordered by about a month. Continue reading Post #G21-047: Canning lid shortage revisited mid-August 2021
Post #1215: COVID-19 trend to 8/17/2021: Delta wave remains on course.
Florida’s data reporting puts a blip into yesterday’s case counts. Abstracting from that, the U.S. Delta wave appears to remains on course for a broad peak in early September.
The U.S. stands at 43.2 new cases / 100K / day, and week-upon-week growth is below 18%. Continue reading Post #1215: COVID-19 trend to 8/17/2021: Delta wave remains on course.
Post #1214: COVID-19 trend to 8/16/2021, new case growth continues to slow.
There’s another glitch in Florida’s data reporting this week.
This time, I’ve fixed it as best I can. As a result, compared to what you might see in the newspapers, I don’t show a spike in Florida cases, and I show lower growth in cases for the U.S.
You’ll just have to trust that the numbers I’m reporting are more nearly correct. Tomorrow, it’ll all be a wash, and everyone’s numbers will be back in sync again.
With that correction, U.S. is at 41.5 new cases / 100K / day, and the seven-day growth in new cases was just 15%.
And so, growth continues to slow as we approach what should be an early-September peak of the Delta wave. Unless, per prior post, the Delta wave morphs into the start of the U.S. winter wave. Continue reading Post #1214: COVID-19 trend to 8/16/2021, new case growth continues to slow.
Post #1213: COVID-19: Oh ****.
Those of you who follow this blog know that I tend to be a little bit ahead of the curve on the topic of COVID-19. In a good way. Please bear that in mind as you read this.
In my past few posts I have been casually mentioning this year’s winter wave of COVID-19. But I hadn’t really thought about it. I mean, seriously, it’s August, we just got through a week of temperatures in the 90’s F. Who in their right mind is thinking about winter? Continue reading Post #1213: COVID-19: Oh ****.
Post #1212: COVID-19 trend, finishing out the week with a bit of light at the end of the tunnel.
The U.S. ends the COVID-19 data reporting week at 39.7 new cases per 100,000 per day. Growth in new cases continues to slow, and is now down to a 20% increase in cases every seven days.
Average (median) start date for the Delta wave is 7/5/2021. Map courtesy of datawrapper.de.
Post #1211: COVID-19 trend to 8/12/2021, growth continues to slow
Today the U.S. reached 38.9 new cases per 100,000 population per day.
That’s just 0.5 cases higher than yesterday, and reinforces the idea that growth in new cases is slowing down. The current 26%-per-week growth rate for daily new cases is half of what it was two weeks ago.
That slowdown in case growth is concentrated among states with high case counts. And that, in turn, brings down the U.S. average growth, because most of the cases in the U.S. are in that handful of states with high case counts.
By eye, it looks as if the U.S. peak ought to be in early September, which would be reasonably consistent with with the “9 weeks rule” outlined yesterday. At which point, we can start planning for the winter wave.
Details follow. Continue reading Post #1211: COVID-19 trend to 8/12/2021, growth continues to slow
Post #G21-046: The carbon footprint of home-made tomato sauce
In this post, I estimate the carbon footprint of my home-made spaghetti sauce.
You’ll hear people casually assert that home-canned food is good for the environment. The idea is that it avoids (among other things) the fossil-fuel use associated with transporting food.
But as an economist, I guess it’s my lot in life to point out that nothing is free. Home canning uses a significant amount of fossil fuels. Home-canning of foods with relative low energy content leads to a significant amount of fossil fuel consumed per edible calorie preserved (see Post #G22). It can also generate a non-neglible carbon footprint, owing to the fossil fuels used.
Each quart of sauce I make generates a bit over two pounds of C02 emissions. But that is heavily dependent on a couple of things. Continue reading Post #G21-046: The carbon footprint of home-made tomato sauce